Could President Donald Trump be forced to cancel his planned visit to China for the second time?
Speculation is running high in both Beijing and Washington D.C.. In the Strait of Hormuz, confrontations have now entered their eighth week, and Trump is struggling to find a way out of the predicament.
Earlier this year, the White House announced that he would visit China at the turn of March and April. When he realized that the war with Iran prevented him from traveling, the visit was postponed to May 14–15. But even this schedule may collapse. In both countries, thousands of people are involved in the preparations, not least the Chinese leadership, which is eager to see a swift end to the war.
“The law of the jungle in international politics must come to an end,” said President and Party leader Xi Jinpingrecently. He did not mention the United States by name, but there was no doubt whom he was referring to. Official Chinese media have, from the outset, described the U.S. war against Iran as irresponsible and dangerous.
Trump is also coming under heavy fire on Chinese social media. “He is trying to play chess with the world, but it looks like he only knows how to play Ludo,” reads one comment. “The United States is good at starting wars but does not know how to end them,” writes another. Some go as far as to describe Trump as “old,” “insane,” and “impotent.”
China is by no means unaffected by the war. Before it broke out, the country imported 12–14 percent of its oil from Iran. Although the share was not particularly high, Iranian oil was attractive because it was sold at a discount. In March, imports held steady because tankers arriving at Chinese ports had been loaded before the outbreak of war in late February. But in April, most of the traffic ceased. The result is a quiet but noticeable energy crisis.
For now, China can buy more oil from others at higher prices and draw on its large strategic reserves. But in the long run, there is no simple substitute for Iranian oil. When many countries compete for the same resources, prices are driven up. China’s economic model depends on stable access to affordable oil and gas. When that assumption is challenged, the entire system comes under pressure.
Officially, China expects economic growth of 5.0 percent this year, but that target was set before the outbreak of war. Now the government is signaling a decline toward 4.5 or even 4.0 percent. The oil shock will particularly strain industry and the export sector, and in the worst case, millions could be pushed into unemployment. Other countries in Asia, such as Japan and India, are also at risk. Both are major oil importers and entirely dependent on stable supplies.
Yet China may ultimately reap significant gains from the Iran war. Domestically, the government will accelerate the expansion and use of renewable energy. Today, 30–35 percent of the country’s electricity production comes from renewable sources such as solar, wind, and hydropower. The goal is to reach 40 percent by 2030. Including nuclear power, the share becomes even higher.
At the same time, more countries will turn to China to purchase renewable solutions. Chinese companies accounted for more than 80 percent of global solar panel exports last year, valued at around $50 billion. This year, the figure will be significantly higher.
Even more important is that China is increasingly perceived as a stable force in an otherwise turbulent world. While America’s international reputation is sinking like a stone, China—a ruthless dictatorship—has a golden opportunity to fill the vacuum and strengthen its global position. It is not often that a superpower voluntarily serves such an opportunity to its main rival on a silver platter. But under current U.S. leadership, apparently anything is possible.
“As long as Trump continues his destructive foreign policy, China does not need to defeat the United States. The United States will do that itself,” writes Fareed Zakaria, foreign affairs commentator at The Washington Post.
Several countries in Asia and the Pacific, such as South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, and Australia, have defense agreements with the United States. But now politicians are questioning how much these agreements are worth. During the ongoing war, the United States has transferred military units from Asia to the waters near Hormuz. At the same time, they are painfully aware that Trump has nearly three years left in office. “How are we to deal with a president who changes his mind from hour to hour and day to day?” asks a commentator in the major Japanese newspaper Asahi Shimbun.
Concern over developments in the United States is affecting the entire world. As a result, more and more countries are searching for new anchors. For political reasons, China is not an obvious choice for all, but for many, trade and economics matter most. When a triumphant Trump on April 2 last year announced new tariffs on U.S. trading partners, they received a warning they will not soon forget. Poor Cambodia was hit with tariffs of 97 percent, Vietnam 90 percent, India 52 percent, and Japan 46 percent. Such measures set minds racing.
China, which itself was hit with a tariff rate of 67 percent, immediately saw an opportunity to fish in troubled waters. As a result, its foreign trade with countries other than the United States has increased significantly over the past twelve months. This trend will continue unless the Iran war ends and Trump stops shooting from the hip in all directions.
In any case, it will be a weakened Trump who travels to Beijing in three weeks. Several observers are asking what he and Xi will actually talk about. In recent years—especially since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2019—relations between the two giants have steadily deteriorated. U.S. policy has largely been driven by a desire to slow China’s rise as a superpower. During the same period, China has overcome most obstacles and closed the gap with the United States in nearly all areas, particularly in high technology.
Within a few years, Chinese companies will produce computer chips as advanced as those of the United States. On top of that, China will maintain its near-monopoly on the extraction and refining of rare earth elements for a long time to come. Without these metals, the world’s high-tech industries would grind to a halt. This will give China a clear advantage in the ongoing rivalry. Experts believe it may take ten to fifteen years before the United States and Western countries become self-sufficient.
But what many in Washington, D.C. fear most right now is that a weakened Trump will make matters even worse by traveling “too early” to Beijing. The United States cannot afford that. As one analysis from the U.S. Center for Strategic and International Studies puts it: “A summit cannot replace a clear and coherent strategy.”
