Kinaforum

fredag 4. oktober 2024

As communist China turns 75, can Xi fix its economy?

As China prepared to celebrate its Golden Week holiday and mark the 75th anniversary of the People’s Republic, the ruling Communist Party rolled out a raft of measures aimed at boosting its ailing economy. The plans included help for the country's crisis-hit property industry, support for the stock market, cash handouts for the poor and more government spending.

Shares in mainland China and Hong Kong chalked up record gains after the announcements. But economists warn the policies may not be enough to fix China's economic problems. Some of the new measures announced by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) on 24 September took direct aim at the country's beaten-down stock market. The new tools included funding worth 800bn yuan ($114bn; £85.6bn) that can be borrowed by insurers, brokers and asset managers to buy shares.

PBOC governor, Pan Gongsheng, also said the central bank would offer support to listed companies that want to buy back their own shares and announced plans to lower borrowing costs, and allow banks to increase their lending. Just two days after the PBOC's announcement, President Xi Jinping chaired a surprise economy-focused meeting of the country's top leaders, known as the Politburo.

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Xi Jinping is worried about the economy - what do Chinese people think?

China unveils raft of measures to boost economy

Edmund Lin: Why It’s Time to Rename the South China Sea

The South China Sea is a strategic and resource-rich body of water that is known by various names, reflecting the region’s multifaceted historical, cultural, and geopolitical connections. The English term, which is most commonly used to refer to the waterway, came about due to the European interests in these seas as a trading route from Europe to Asia and China. To the Chinese, it is often referred to as “Nanhai”, emphasizing its geographic position south of the Chinese mainland. For the Vietnamese, the sea is “Biển Đông” (Eastern Sea), signifying its location relative to Vietnam’s landmass. In recent times, the Philippines has referred to parts of the sea as the “West Philippine Sea,” asserting its sovereignty over parts of this contested area.

These differing names, which also extend down to the hundreds of islands, reefs, and other features in the South China Sea, are not just semantic; they each advance a nationalist narrative and a historical claim.

Elizabeth Economy: The 75-Year Quest to Make China Great Again

The transformation of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) over the past 75 years from an impoverished, war-torn nation to a global power is an impressive story of both modern state-building and the creation of a new center of power in the international system. At home, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has ruled without significant opposition since the country’s inception, hundreds of millions of Chinese have moved out of poverty, and the economy has grown on average 9 percent per year for over four decades. Internationally, the PRC has become the world’s largest trading power, boasts the world’s largest military, and is a leading innovator in critical technologies such as electric vehicles, 5G, and artificial intelligence.

Zhou Fengsuo: “Xi Jinping Is the Natural Product of an Evil System”

Zhou is a well-known activist for human rights in China. He survived the Tiananmen Square massacre and harbors no illusions: today, the situation is worse than ever.

“Violence and fear are the weapons of the Chinese Communist government.” Zhou Fengsuo punctuates the syllables in slow, terse English and gets right to the point. He speaks without hesitation. His eyes are filled with memories. Tiananmen Square, the night between June 3‒4, 1989. Tanks crushed the students who for days had been calling for freedom. They did not expect that denouement, Zhou among them. A student in Beijing’s Qinghua University, he was one of the leaders of the protest.

Today he is 56. Born in Xi’an, the capital of the northwestern province of Shaanxi, he lived through it all and saw it all. I ask him: “How many died in that massacre?” He replies: “It is impossible to know. The survivors were swallowed up by prisons. Their families grew old and died. The regime concealed or destroyed evidence.” He is right. Western sources, however, suggest the shocking figure of up to 10,000 casualties. “The government sent elite troops against us,” Zhou says.

Renaming Tibet “Xizang”: Are French Museums Backing Off?

After having been named and shamed for their abject subservience to Xi Jinping, Musée Guimet and Musée du quai Branly are trying to save their reputation. Or was it just a clerical mistake? A misunderstanding, perhaps? Having been accused of abjectly “bowing to China’s demands to rewrite history and erase peoples,” two leading Paris museums are trying to back off.

What happened, exactly? On September 1, 2024, “Le Monde” published an op-ed signed by la crème de la crème of French academic Tibetologists and experts of Asian art accusing the Musée Guimet and the Musée du quai Branly of having sold their soul to Xi Jinping. The Musée du quai Branly had changed the name “Tibet” to “Xizang,” according to Beijing’s diktat, in its catalogues. The Guimet had changed the title of its “Tibetan” rooms to “Himalayan World” rooms.

Utenriksminister Espen Barth Eide: Sikkerhet og handel. En ny balansegang

I en verden mer preget av geopolitisk konkurranse enn på flere tiår, står avveiningen mellom sikkerhetshensyn og videre økonomisk globalisering helt sentralt. Det gjør at vi står overfor en rekke krevende avveininger i utenrikspolitikken, noe som både påvirker vårt forhold til land som Kina så vel som vårt forhold til våre partnere i Europa.

At sikkerhetspolitikken trumfer handelspolitikken, er strengt tatt nærmere den historiske normaltilstanden enn hva de første tiårene etter den kalde krigens slutt kunne gi inntrykk av. På 1990- og 2000-tallet kunne man lett bli forledet til å tro at de aller fleste land var på vei, ikke bare mot demokrati, men også mot åpne markedsøkonomier.

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onsdag 2. oktober 2024

Torbjørn Færøvik: Et glemsomt "Folkets Kina" fyller 75 år

Den store festen er over. Den 1. oktober fylte Folkerepublikken Kina 75 år. ”Det kinesiske folket har reist seg”, erklærte en stolt formann Mao til folkehavet på Den himmelske freds plass i Beijing. Men ti år senere begynte millioner av kinesere å dø som fluer av sult, sykdom og overarbeid.

Det sies at historien skrives av seierherrene. I Kinas tilfelle er det langt på vei sant. Det kinesiske kommunistpartiet har i alle år anstrengt seg for å skjønnmale sine dåder og udåder, og å sensurere enhver ubehagelig ytring om landets nære historie. Men det finnes også et lite antall modige kinesere som har gjort det til en livsoppgave å grave i fortiden. Sinologen og forfatteren Ian Johnson forteller om dem i boken Sparks. China’s Underground Historians and their Battle for the Future (2023).

Ifølge forfatteren er disse ”undergrunnhistorikerne” stort sett vanlige mennesker i fast arbeid. Likevel skiller de seg ut fordi de risikerer å få partiet og systemet på nakken. Historiene de avdekker, har ofte et lokalt tilsnitt. Mange er opptatt av å intervjue gamle mennesker før de forlater denne verden, andre graver i lokale arkiver. Tilfeldigheter og lokale partipampers dagsform kan være avgjørende for om de lykkes eller ei.

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Guoguang Wu: Has Xi Jinping Reached His Peak? Power Concentration versus Governance Capability

Two factors show that Xi has successfully consolidated his power: his “dismantling” of established norms within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), through winning a third term to “rule over the party, state, and military,” and the absence of high-level political opponents following the 20th Party Congress. It is likely Xi is at the peak of political power in China, yet he has had difficulty performing and implementing policy. For example, he has had a middling record on economic performance and difficulty rooting out corruption. Thus a paradox arises: as Xi has climbed to the height of his power, he continues to have a weak record in implementing policy.

Minxin Pei: Do Chinese Leaders and Elites Think Their Best Days Are Behind Them?

China’s economy has likely peaked or is peaking, yet there is little sign the country’s leaders agree. Its GDP relative to the United States (US), in dollar terms, was lower in 2023 than in 2021, for example. An analysis of elite statements and speeches indicates they vehemently deny signs that China’s economy needs reform. Without initiating difficult reforms, however, the favorable factors party leaders cite, such as extensive resources and economies of scale, may not keep China growing at the necessary pace to outcompete the US.

China's bright young minds are having a hard time landing av job

For much of the past year since China reopened to the world following the Covid-19 pandemic, a pall has hung over large swathes of the country as its economy struggles to regain momentum. The country’s bright young minds are having a hard time landing a job; its white-collar professionals are hit by pay cuts and layoffs; its entrepreneurs struggle to finance their businesses and pay off debts; its middle-class families are seeing their wealth slashed by crumbling housing prices; and its rich race to move money out of the country.

In the months leading up to the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic on Tuesday, the mood was encapsulated by a new buzz phrase: “the garbage time of history.” Like the final minutes of a basketball game with one team trailing so far behind that all efforts to win seem futile, some Chinese believe their country is trapped in a similarly bleak period with little hope for a turnaround.

China’s astronauts are aiming to land on the moon by 2030. They now have a new spacesuit to do it

China has taken a step forward in its ambitious plan to land astronauts on the moon by 2030 – unveiling the specially designed spacesuit its crew will don for what’s expected to be a landmark mission in the country’s space program. The new red-and-white suit – revealed by the China Manned Space Agency (CMSA) over the weekend – is made to withstand the moon’s extreme temperatures, as well as radiation and dust, while allowing astronauts physical flexibility to perform tasks on the lunar surface, according to state media.

The moon-landing suit is equipped with a built-in long and short-range camera, an operations console, and a glare-proof helmet visor, according to a video shared by state broadcaster CCTV, which featured well-known Chinese astronauts Zhai Zhigang and Wang Yaping demonstrating how astronauts wearing the suit can bend and climb a ladder.

The new technology has caught international attention.

Walz says he ‘misspoke’ after unearthed newspaper reports undercut claim he was in Hong Kong during Tiananmen Square protests

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz said on Tuesday he “misspoke” when he previously said he’d visited Hong Kong in the spring of 1989 during protests in China’s Tiananmen Square but insisted he “was in Hong Kong and China” during the pro-democracy protests.

His comments during Tuesday night’s vice presidential debate followed the unearthing of reports that contradict previous claims he made about his travel to China, including a claim that the Democratic vice presidential nominee was in Hong Kong preparing for a teaching position in 1989 during the Tiananmen Square pro-democracy protests that ended in hundreds of protesters killed by the Chinese government.

“My community knows who I am. They saw where I was at,” Walz said during the debate. “Look, I will be the first to tell you, I have poured my heart into my community. I’ve tried to do the best I can, but I’ve not been perfect, and I’m a knucklehead at times, but it’s always been about that. Those same people elected me to Congress for 12 years.” When pressed by CBS News’ moderators specifically about the discrepancy between his past comments and the media reports on his travel, Walz first said he “misspoke” on this.

In Retrospect: Cultural Revolution. The pain, passion and power struggle that shaped China today

While the Communist Party has strongly denounced the revolution, it has been careful to preserve the image of Mao Zedong, who saw the movement as one of his two greatest achievements, the other being winning the civil war against the Nationalists in 1949.

The party’s 1981 document attributed blame for the revolution’s many wrongdoings to the Gang of Four and Lin Biao who reportedly did so “behind [Mao’s] back”. But after the bloody crackdown on pro-democracy protests at Beijing’s Tiananmen Square in 1989, research on the Cultural Revolution became severely restricted, according to Chinese official scholars. Meanwhile, among the people, nostalgia grew for Mao and his revolutionary era as they blamed China’s market reforms for widespread corruption and wealth inequality across the country.

In Retrospect: President Jimmy Carter and China

During the height of the Cold War former U.S. President Jimmy Carter and Chinese Vice Premier Deng Xiaoping looked beyond their nations’ many differences and found common ground.

On Jan. 1, 1979, the two leaders normalized diplomatic relations between their countries, which had been estranged since the Communist Party established the People’s Republic of China in 1949 and the United States chose to back the Nationalists, who fled to Taiwan. In the years leading up to 1979, the U.S. imposed trade embargoes and forbade Americans from traveling to China; China, meanwhile, seized nearly $200 million in American assets and properties within its borders.

There wasn’t much love lost between the nations. But President Carter and Vice Premier Deng believed that rapprochement would make the world safer and benefit both the U.S. and China. After President Carter left office, he continued his efforts to improve relations between the two countries. He has visited China many times over the years and established a China Program within The Carter Center, which at one time helped monitor Chinese village elections and now pursues better relations and seeks opportunities for cooperation through a variety of channels.

Xi vows ‘reunification’ with Taiwan on eve of Communist China’s 75th birthday

Chinese leader Xi Jinping reiterated his pledge to achieve “reunification” with Taiwan on the eve of Communist China’s 75th birthday, as Beijing flexed its military might in the run-up to the national holiday. At a state banquet celebrating the founding of the People’s Republic on Monday, Xi used his address to underscore his resolve to achieve the “complete reunification of the motherland.”

“It’s an irreversible trend, a cause of righteousness and the common aspiration of the people. No one can stop the march of history,” he told the thousands in attendance at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, according to state-run news agency Xinhua. China’s ruling Communist Party claims Taiwan as its own, despite having never controlled it, and has vowed to “reunify” with the self-governing democracy, by force if necessary. But many people on the island view themselves as distinctly Taiwanese and have no desire to be part of Communist China.

Hong Kong: “We Can’t Write the Truth Anymore”

Following months of massive pro-democracy protests in 2019, the Chinese government on June 30, 2020, imposed the National Security Law on Hong Kong. The draconian law contains overly broad and vague provisions that severely punish peaceful speech and activities, create secret security agencies, give sweeping new powers to the police, impose restraints on civil society and the media, deny fair trial rights, and weaken judicial oversight.

The Chinese and Hong Kong governments moved swiftly to transform Hong Kong from a free society into an authoritarian one. Hong Kong authorities arrested many of the city’s pro-democracy leaders, activists, and protesters, and forced independent media, labor unions, and civil society organizations to close. They reshaped multiple sectors and institutions so they become compliant to the Chinese government.

This report details the severe decline in academic freedom and the rights to freedom of expression, association, and peaceful assembly on Hong Kong’s eight publicly funded universities since June 2020.

The Report

Hong Kong: Academic Freedom Declines Under Security Law

Academic freedom in Hong Kong has severely declined since the Chinese government imposed the draconian National Security Law on the city on June 30, 2020, Human Rights Watch and Hong Kong Democracy Council said in a report released today.

The 80-page report, “‘We Can’t Write the Truth Anymore’: Academic Freedom in Hong Kong Under the National Security Law,” documents that long-protected civil liberties, including the rights to freedom of expression, assembly, and association, have been under assault in Hong Kong’s eight publicly funded universities. As these universities have become increasingly repressive, students and faculty widely self-censor, fearful of being targeted for harassment, retribution, and even prosecution for what they say and do both in the classroom and on campus.

Vietnam says China attacked fishing boat near disputed islands

Chinese personnel boarded a Vietnamese fishing boat off the Paracel Islands in the South China Sea and beat the crew with iron bars, seriously injuring four of them, after a chase by Chinese ships near the islands that both countries claim, a Vietnamese official said.

The boat’s skipper, Nguyen Thanh Bien, told the Tien Phong news site that his boat was chased on Sunday by two ships with hull numbers 101 and 301. He said they sent three smaller boats to trap his vessel in a pincer maneuver, enabling men in camouflage to climb aboard and attack the crew. “I tried to run towards the bow of the ship, however, two people held me and attacked me so hard that I lost consciousness. I woke up about an hour later,” he said.

Bien radioed the Vietnamese border guard on Sunday afternoon, telling them several crew members had broken arms and legs, while the others had unspecified injuries. He also asked for help from Vietnam’s regional Maritime Search and Rescue Coordination Center.

Vietnam denounces China’s occupation of islands in 1974