The deal to reopen Hormuz is nowhere near done

Wednesday’s ceasefire announcement by President Donald Trump, linked to Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, prompted immediate optimism shipping would quickly resume. It didn’t. The following morning, traffic remained minimal. A handful of vessels, largely linked to Iran, made the transit. But most of the ships waiting in the Gulf stayed put. Iran announced shortly afterwardsthat it would effectively close the strait because of Israel’s attacks on Lebanon.

The reality is the strait was never closed. Framing the issue as “open” or “closed” misses the point. Ships are not being physically blocked. They are being deterred.

Over recent weeks, Iran has demonstrated both the capability and intent to target commercial shipping. Attacks and credible threats against vessels have driven daily transits down from around 130 to just a handful. Until that risk changes, ships will not return in meaningful numbers.

So what can be done to turn this around?

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