Some argue that “China has a lot to lose,” that the war is “unsettling China and its ambitions,” or that “Xi Jinping’s geopolitical chessboard is starting to collapse.” Others contend that the war “could help China,” that “China gains [an] edge from Trump’s war,” or that “Beijing may emerge as the quiet winner.”This is a complicated question involving several factors, some favorable to China’s global agenda and some unfavorable. A proper assessment finds that the war is a net negative for China, but not by much.
For China, Iran was a useful but never a vital economic partner. In 2021, China signed a deal to eventually invest US$400 billion in Iran in exchange for a steady flow of oil. China’s investment up to the start of the war was only a small fraction of that figure. As University of Pennsylvania analyst Aaron Glasserman summarizes, “Iran needs China, but China does not need Iran.”