Obviously not. But that is precisely what Xue Jian, China’s consul general in Osaka, said he wanted to do in a post on X earlier this month: “That filthy neck … I have no choice but to sever it without a moment’s hesitation. Are you prepared for that?”
The message was later deleted, and the diplomat was forced to backtrack. But why was he so angry? Because Takaichi had just said, on November 7, that any Chinese use of force against Taiwan would be considered “an existential threat to Japan.” Many interpreted the statement to mean that Japan would intervene if China blockaded or attacked Taiwan.
For Beijing, this is dramatic, because it means China must plan for a scenario in which not only the United States, but also Japan, becomes militarily involved on Taiwan’s side.
Takaichi’s remarks could sour relations between China and Japan for a long time. Suddenly there are many empty seats on flights between Beijing and Tokyo. After China warned its citizens against traveling to Japan last weekend, a large number of Chinese tour operators have canceled their trips. Japan has long been a coveted destination for affluent Chinese travelers. In the first nine months of this year alone, 7.5 million visited the colorful Land of the Rising Sun.
But China’s leaders have more in store and are threatening economic retaliation, including a complete halt to all Japanese seafood exports to China. “Such exports will no longer find any market here,” a Chinese spokesperson stated a few days ago.
If relations grow even more strained, China could restrict its exports of rare earth elements to Japan. Such a measure could hit the island nation’s high-tech industry squarely in the solar plexus. The idea has already been floated in Chinese media. China extracts about 70 percent of the world’s rare earths and accounts for 90 percent of all processing.
Sanae Takaichi (64) took office as prime minister last month. She has presented herself as an “iron lady” critical of China, and she has long pushed for increased rearmament. For many years Japan kept within the limits of its pacifist constitution. Adopted in 1947 under the American occupation after World War II, it contains the much-debated Article 9, in which Japan renounces the right to wage war and to establish military forces for offensive purposes.
In recent years, politicians have adopted a broader interpretation and changed course. Japan is now buying offensive weapons like never before, including American Tomahawk missiles. It is also developing its own long-range missiles, and its navy is being modernized at high speed.
The main reason for this military buildup is China’s saber-rattling at sea, but also North Korea’s threatening behavior, with frequent nuclear tests and missile launches.
Takaichi’s tough remarks are not only about showing solidarity with Taiwan; they also illustrate Japan’s dependence on the southern sea lanes. Last year, Japanese goods worth 5 trillion dollars passed by Taiwan and continued through the South China Sea. If China gains full control of these areas, it could choke Japan’s economy in a crisis.
In addition, Taiwan is considered an important buffer for the defense of Japan’s territorial waters. If Taiwan falls, China’s naval power will move closer and threaten Japan’s interests in the East China Sea—the body of water separating the two neighbors.
Here the parties disagree sharply over maritime borders, especially over ownership of the tiny Senkaku Islands, which China calls Diaoyu. The islands are uninhabited, apart from a handful of goats grazing there. But over the years they have become symbols of something larger, and both sides stand firm. In 2010, China nearly halted all exports of rare earths to Japan because of this unresolved dispute.
China and Japan are historical enemies. Japan’s invasion and occupation of China during World War II resulted in millions of Chinese deaths. Only in 1972, under Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka, did the two agree to establish diplomatic relations. Since then, relations have improved, largely because of ever-closer economic ties. Japanese industry has invested heavily in China since the 1990s, and trade has increased year by year. Last year it was estimated at nearly 300 billion dollars.
At the same time, many Japanese investors fear for their future in China. A growing sense of being obstructed has led several companies either to withdraw or to consider doing so. With even more geopolitical tension, they could find themselves in a dangerous crossfire. Japan has therefore become more focused on finding alternative markets and establishing new political alliances. Nearby and distant neighbors such as Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, India, Indonesia, and Australia are high on the list.
Moreover, relations with the United States are more important than ever. When Takaichi received Trump in Tokyo in October, they immediately hit it off. They signed agreements on cooperation in critical minerals and rare earth elements to counter China’s dominance. Trump also expressed strong support for defense cooperation and assured that the United States would “be there for Japan” if needed. Takaichi, for her part, said she wished to nominate Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize for his contributions to peace in Asia and the world.
Nearly sixty thousand American soldiers are stationed in Japan, most of them on the island of Okinawa. The largest U.S. bases are found there. From Kadena Air Base, American fighter jets can reach the Taiwan Strait in less than an hour. The White Beach naval base is equally important and serves as a logistical hub for the U.S. 7th Fleet in the East China Sea. In a crisis in the Taiwan Strait, the United States could also activate its forces in South Korea and on Guam in the Pacific.
Takaichi’s firebrand remarks raise the question of what Japan can contribute. The answer is: a lot. Japan will not enter the Taiwan Strait or land forces on Taiwan, as the United States might do. Japan’s contribution will primarily be of a strategic, logistical, and defensive nature. It could protect and support American military units as far as possible.
Japan is known for its frequent changes of prime minister. Does Takaichi risk falling because of her statement?
Not at the moment. Fresh polls show that she has broad public support (70 percent). The ruling Liberal Democratic Party stands behind her for now, and no one is calling for her resignation. Her statement was indeed sharp, but in line with the course Japan has long charted. But China is not done with the issue. The government in Beijing warns of “resolute” Chinese countermeasures if Takaichi does not withdraw her statement. She is unlikely to do so.
So now, Chinese and Japanese alike await what happens next with great anticipation.
