US soybean farmers are dangerously overdependent on China

For many years now China has been our soybean farmers’ biggest overseas customer – by a large margin. In 2024, China accounted for more than half of American soybean exports. The next largest customer, the European Union, accounted for only a tenth. In up years and down for US exports, China’s lead has been large.

Some of the down years began with China’s retaliation for the tariffs President Donald Trump imposed in 2018. Since then, China has increasingly turned to Brazil as its preferred supplier. Still, it has continued to buy a lot of US beans.

Until this year, that is.

As every soybean farmer knows, Trump has hit China with big tariffs once again and China has once again retaliated. In this year’s first eight months, the Chinese bought only 200 million bushels, down from a billion in the same period last year. In recent months they bought none.

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