Under Trump 2.0, the US has alienated many of the key allies it would have needed in order to match China’s market size and manufacturing acumen, leaving America standing alone against a country four times its size. Tariffs have hobbled America’s already tottering manufacturing sector. Just a few months after Trump’s inauguration, the idea of a democratic world led by the US standing up to challenge China’s rise now seems more than a little far-fetched. Meanwhile, China continues to bully and overpower Trump in trade negotiations.
This basically leaves China as the world’s preeminent power by default. The likeliest outcome is that this will be a “Chinese century” — though it won’t look quite like the “American century” did, because China will use its power and influence very differently than the US did.
On the other hand, nothing is certain. Rising powers have squandered their moment in the sun and cut short their own rise in the past. In fact, this is not such an uncommon outcome. At the beginning of the 20th century, there were four rising powers — the US, Germany, Japan and Russia.
