Tariffs may have been Donald Trump’s weapon of choice, but China’s export engine is proving impervious to his trade war. Despite the US president’s best efforts, China’s trade surplus is on track to end 2025 at US$1.2 trillion, topping last year’s nearly $1 trillion figure. The reason is that
China has become adept at adapting, diversifying markets, rerouting supply chains and shifting its focus to sectors less exposed to US tariffs.
Shipments to Southeast Asia, for example, are topping their peak during the Covid-19 era. In August, exports to India reached an all-time high, while sales to Africa are on track to follow suit.
Ironically, the Trump 1.0 period catalyzed
China Inc not just to sandbag the export sector but also to increase competitiveness in ways that the Trump 2.0 gang hadn’t noticed, notes Arthur Kroeber, head of research at Gavekal Dragonomics.
