The incoming Trump 2.0 administration’s nomination of China hawks such as Marco Rubio, Mike Waltz and Elbridge Colby for senior leadership positions would seemingly bode well for Taiwan. Sydney Morning Herald correspondent Lisa Visentin is among those who
conclude that “Trump has sent an early message to Beijing that Washington is unlikely to abandon Taiwan.” A recent Taipei Times editorial
exulted that the composition of Trump’s proposed leadership team “indicates that the US would continue its robust support for Taiwan.”
Alas, the reality is more complicated. Taiwan is already expecting rough weather from Washington on two fronts.
The first is a demand that Taiwan must raise its defense spending from its current level of 2.5% of GDP. Trump
said the figure should be 10%. Lest we dismiss that as casual Trumpian hyperbole, Colby, the newly appointed undersecretary of defense for policy, has
said the same thing.
