Kinaforum

lørdag 17. januar 2026

Torbjørn Færøvik: China’s Export Trap - Growth Without Consumption

While Donald Trump prepares to conquer the icy wilderness of Greenland, China is advancing on other fronts. In 2026 as well, Chinese export goods will continue to flood global markets. Europe and Norway will not be spared. At the same time, China’s own consumers will keep counting their pennies. Why? Because something is fundamentally wrong with Chinese society, and these problems will not disappear anytime soon.

The eastern superpower expects growth of between four and five percent this year. That would be a respectable performance, and higher than in any Western economy. Yet the growth will largely be driven by exports, not by domestic consumption. This is precisely what makes the situation so unusual – and politically fraught. “We have reached a turning point. China cannot continue on this path,” says European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

There are three main reasons for what is happening.

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Chinese EVs are making inroads in North America. That worries industry experts

Chinese automakers have been making inroads around the world with growing sales of their high-tech, stylish and affordable electric vehicles. That has had competitors concerned even before Canada this week agreed to cut its tariffs on Chinese EVs in exchange for concessions on Canadian farm products.

Experts now say an easier path into Canada could be a big boost for Chinese carmakers looking to dominate the global market — particularly as their domestic market weakens. That poses a threat to other auto manufacturers, particularly American companies.

U.S. officials acknowledged that in remarks at an assembly plant for Jeep-maker Stellantis in Toledo, Ohio on Friday. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said the Chinese Communist Party invests in its auto industry to “control this industry.”

Trump’s protectionist trade policies allow China to swoop in

America’s top trading partners are responding to President Donald Trump’s belligerent and unpredictable trade policies by trying to take their business elsewhere.

Canada broke with the United States Friday, slashing its 100% import tax on Chinese electric vehicles in return for lower tariffs on Canadian farm products, particularly canola seeds.

“It’s a huge declaration of realignment in Canada’s economic relations,” said Edward Alden, who studies trade issues as senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “The economic threat from the United States is now perceived by Canadians as far bigger than the economic threat from China. So this is a big deal.’’

Beijing Won Its War for Blue Skies, but Villagers Are Paying the Price

The temperature was 28 degrees, but Dong Tongzhou had turned off his heat at home and was standing in the village square wrapped in a tattered black coat, trying to soak up the midday sun. He wasn’t alone — other villagers sat on folding chairs and at a card table, as chickens strutted around and clucked.

Mr. Dong, 68, used to warm his one-room home by burning coal, he explained on a recent afternoon. Then the government banned that for environmental reasons, and offered natural gas as a replacement. But that could cost three times as much. To save money, Mr. Dong often sunbathed for warmth.

Even so, Mr. Dong said he spent about 1,000 yuan, or about $143, each winter to heat his home in Quyang county, in northern China’s Hebei Province. On a monthly basis, that works out to over a third of his pension of 800 yuan as a retired farmer and former soldier.

US Secures Historic Chip Deal Amid Tech War With China

The United States has clinched a sweeping agreement with Taiwan that would reduce tariffs on the "Silicon Island" in exchange for up to a quarter‑trillion dollars in investments, a move that carries significant security implications for Taipei amid mounting pressure from China.

The deal follows similar arrangements Washington struck last year with Japan, European countries and China that brought down trade duties Trump had ratcheted up since April as part of a campaign to cut trade deficits and revive American manufacturing.

Why Cambodia deported scam boss Chen Zhi to China, not the US

On January 7, Cambodian authorities announced they had detained and deported Chen Zhi, founder and former chairman of Prince Group, a multinational conglomerate accused of fronting a global multibillion-dollar fraud operation.

Chen, a former advisor to ex-Prime Minister Hun Sen, became a key figure in a joint US-UK response last year when he was personally indicted for wire fraud and money laundering conspiracy charges and included in an unprecedented sanctions program targeting the Prince Group and other organized crime syndicates in Southeast Asia. Chen’s arrest — and his subsequent extradition to China — surprised many because he had such powerful backers in Phnom Penh. He held the government’s bestowed honorific neak oknha, meaning “prominent tycoon”, and had long been allowed to operate largely unrestrained at the head of a burgeoning network of scam centers.

China's condom tax no way to pump up low birth rates

Once the world’s most populous nation, China is now among the many Asian countries struggling with anemic fertility rates. In an attempt to double the country’s rate of 1.0 children per woman, Beijing is reaching for a new tool: taxes on condoms, birth control pills and other contraceptives.

As of January 1, such items were subject to a 13% value-added tax. Meanwhile, services such as child care and matchmaking remain duty-free.The move comes after China last year allocated 90 billion yuan (US$12.7 billion) for a national child care program giving families a one-off payment of around 3,600 yuan (over $500) for every child age three or under.

I have studied China’s demography for almost 40 years and know that past attempts by the country’s communist government to reverse slumping fertility rates through policies encouraging couples to have more children have not worked.

One Year Into Trump 2.0, Global Survey Shows More People See China Rising

President Donald Trump is “making China great again,” according to the results of a new survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations.

The survey of about 26,000 people found that most respondents in almost all 21 participating countries believed that China will have more global influence over the next decade. Meanwhile, opinions of the U.S. among its traditional allies and adversaries have shifted, while generally expectations of Trump have fallen a year into his presidency.

“A year on from Trump’s return, in countries across the globe, many people believe China is on the verge of becoming even more powerful,” the report said.

The survey was conducted by ECFR and Oxford University’s Europe in a Changing World in November 2025, prior to the U.S. abduction of former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in January. The 21 countries that participated were Brazil, China, India, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Switzerland, Turkey, the U.K., Ukraine, the U.S., and 10 E.U. countries (Bulgaria, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Spain). The views of the E.U. countries were represented by a simple average of each country’s results.

US Aircraft Carrier in South China Sea Could Be Heading for Iran

Satellites have captured the Nimitz-class supercarrier USS Abraham Lincolnoperating in the disputed South China Sea before it was reportedly ordered to redeploy to the Middle East to shore up U.S. military power amid flaring tensions with Iran.

The South China Sea is home to competing claims by several nations, including China, which asserts sovereignty over upwards of 80 percent of the busy waterway as its territory. China's expanding presence in the maritime zone of the Philippines has led to dramatic clashes and pushed the U.S. treaty ally to boost security ties with Washington and other partners in the region.

The Iranian government is in the midst of a deadly crackdown on the largest-scale anti-government protests in years, with death toll estimates ranging from 3,400 to more than 12,000. Trump has threatened to respond and has not ruled out military force—though on Wednesday he said he had it "on good authority" that the killing had stopped, with "no plan for executions" of protesters.

China just ‘months’ behind U.S. AI models, Google DeepMind CEO says

China’s artificial intelligence models may be just “a matter of months” behind U.S. and Western capabilities, Demis Hassabis, the CEO of Google DeepMind told CNBC. The assessment from the head of one of the world’s leading AI labs and a key driver behind Google’s Gemini assistant, runs counter to views that have suggested China remains far behind.

Speaking on CNBC’s new podcast, The Tech Download, which launched on Friday, Hassabis said Chinese AI models are closer to U.S. and Western capabilities “than maybe we thought one or two years ago.” “Maybe they’re only a matter of months behind at this point,” Hassabis told The Tech Download.

About a year ago, Chinese AI lab DeepSeek came out with a model that sent shockwaves through markets because of its strong performance that was builton less-advanced chips and at a lower cost than American alternatives.

Japan and the Philippines sign a new defense pact as they face growing China aggression

Japan and the Philippines signed a defense pact on Thursday that would allow the tax-free provision of ammunition, fuel, food and other necessities when their forces stage joint training to boost deterrence against China’s growing aggression in the region and to bolster their preparation for natural disasters.

Japan has faced increasing political, trade and security tensions with China, which was angered by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remark that potential Chinese action against Taiwan could spark Japanese intervention.

Japan and the Philippines have also had separate territorial conflicts with Beijing in the East China Sea and South China Sea that have continued to flare and threaten to draw in the United States, a treaty ally of the two Asian nations.

Canada’s leader patches things up with China as rift with Trump upends old certainties

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney hailed a new “strategic partnership” with China during a meeting with leader Xi Jinping Friday, as the US ally took steps to reset ties with Beijing in the face of historic friction with Donald Trump.

Canada would ease tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and expected China to significantly reduce barriers tariffs on Canadian canola seed later this year, Ottawa said in a statement after the meeting – in a major step to ease long-standing trade tensions.

Carney is the first Canadian prime minister to visit since 2017, a year before relations between the two cratered after Canada arrested an executive from Chinese telecoms giant Huawei at the request of the US, and Beijing imprisoned two Canadian citizens shortly after.

Taiwan hails its ‘best’ trade deal with US, as China protests

Taiwan’s premier on Friday hailed a new trade deal with the United States as the “best tariff deal” enjoyed by countries with trade surpluses with Washington, as meanwhile a Chinese official in Beijing condemned the accord.

The agreement cuts U.S. tariffs on Taiwanese goods to 15% in exchange for $250 billion in new investments in the U.S. tech industry. It is comparable to deals with the European Union and Japan worked out after President Donald Trump proposed sweeping tariffs for many U.S. trading partners.

“For the time being, we obtained the best tariff deal enjoyed by the countries with trade surplus with the U.S.,” said Taiwan Premier Cho Jung-tai. “This also shows that the U.S. sees Taiwan as an important strategic partner.”

Survey says slowing economy is the No. 1 worry for US businesses in China, not trade friction

U.S. businesses are more concerned about China’s slowing economy than trade friction, according to a survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in China released Friday. Of 368 companies responding to the survey, 64% viewed slowing growth in the world’s second largest economy as their top worry, while 58% cited U.S.-China trade tensions as a key challenge.

One reason for that may be that many U.S. companies have businesses focused on China’s huge market of about 1.4 billion people that do not rely on exports back to the U.S. Economists expect China’s economy to slow further this year after expanding at about a 5% annual pace in 2025. Growth in exports outpaced imports last year, leading to a record trade surplus of nearly $1.2 trillion.

ICE Arrests Chinese Billionaire Owner of Failed Casino on US Island

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has arrested Cui Lijie, a Chinese national and key figure behind a lavish casino on Saipan in the Northern Mariana Islands, a U.S. unincorporated territory in the West Pacific. Cui was the majority shareholder of Hong Kong-based Imperial Pacific International LLC, a now-bankrupt Chinese investment holding company that possessed the island's only casino license.

The arrest comes as the Trump administration has dramatically ramped up efforts to detain and deport undocumented immigrants, while citing sweeping discretionary powers that a number of legal experts have said in some cases may violate due process and other rights.

Why Thailand’s deadly construction accidents are sparking outrage and scrutiny

Thailand’s construction industry is under intense scrutiny following a series of high-profile deadly accidents. These include a crane falling onto a moving passenger train this past week and the collapse of an office tower a year ago that killed nearly 100 workers.

Public concern is particularly high in Bangkok due to the frequent and sometimes fatal construction accidents on major road projects. In the latest case, a construction crane collapsed on Thursday, killing two people, just a day after the train tragedy in which 32 people died.Public outrage has centered on Italian-Thai Development, the contractor responsible for both sites where the past week’s accidents occurred. The company, also known as Italthai, was also the joint lead contractor for the 33-story State Audit Office building, which toppled while under construction in March, killing about 100 people.

It was the only major structure in Thailand to collapse from an earthquake whose epicenter was in Myanmar, more than 1,300 kilometers (800 miles) away.

South Korea’s ex-president Yoon given 5-year jail term in first ruling over martial law

A South Korean court on Friday sentenced former President Yoon Suk Yeol to five years in prison on charges that included obstructing attempts by authorities to arrest him following his failed bid to impose martial law in December 2024.

The Seoul Central District Court found Yoon guilty of mobilising the presidential security service to block authorities from executing an arrest warrant to investigate him for his martial law declaration. In televised proceedings, the 65-year-oldformer prosecutor was also found guilty of charges that included fabricating official documents and failing to follow the legal process required for martial law, which has to be discussed at a formal cabinet meeting.

The ruling is the first related to the criminal charges Yoon faces over his botched martial law declaration.

Torbjørn Færøvik: Noe er galt med Kina

Mens Donald Trump forbereder seg på å erobre det grønlandske isødet, rykker Kina fram på andre områder. For også i 2026 vil kinesiske eksportvarer flomme over verden. Europa og Norge slipper heller ikke unna. Samtidig vil Kinas egne forbrukerefortsette å snu på skillingen.

Hvorfor?

Fordi det er noe grunnleggende galt med det kinesiske samfunnet, og problemene forsvinner ikke i overskuelig fremtid.

Supermakten i øst forventer i år en vekst på mellom fire og fem prosent. Det vil i så fall være en pen prestasjon og høyere enn alle vestlige økonomier. Men veksten vil i hovedsak komme fra eksport, ikke fra kinesernes eget forbruk. Det er nettopp dette som gjør situasjon så spesiell – og politisk krevende. «Vi er kommet til et skjæringspunkt. Kina kan ikke fortsette på denne måten», sier EU-kommisjonens president Ursula von der Leyen.