Kinaforum

lørdag 18. oktober 2025

Torbjørn Færøvik: Himmelske dager i Den himmelske by

For 25 år siden levde jeg livet i verdens vakreste by. 

«Siden vi nå er kommet hit, vil jeg fortelle om byens storslåtte prakt, som vel er verd noen ord», berettet Marco Polo på slutten av 1200-tallet. 

«Dette er uten tvil den fineste og mest fornemme by i verden ... her er det tolv tusen broer av stein som er så høye at et stort skip uten problemer kan passere under dem. Og det er lett å forstå, for hele byen befinner seg på vannet og er omgitt av vann på alle kanter.»

Marco Polo kalte byen Kinsay. I dag kjenner vi den som Hangzhou. 

Den reisende venetianer var kjent for å overdrive, og hans beretning om Hangzhou er full av tallstørrelser som ikke står til troende. Men den er også rik på fakta og interessante observasjoner som står seg den dag i dag. 

I år 2000 dro jeg av sted til Kina i Marco Polos spor, og etter måneder på reise kom jeg til byen han roste opp i skyene. Kineserne var også fascinert av den og kalte den like godt Den himmelske by. 

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Microsoft: Russia, China increasingly using AI to escalate cyberattacks on the US

Russia, China, Iran and North Korea have sharply increased their use of artificial intelligence to deceive people online and mount cyberattacks against the United States, according to new research from Microsoft.

This July, the company identified more than 200 instances of foreign adversaries using AI to create fake content online, more than double the number from July 2024 and more than ten times the number seen in 2023. The findings, published Thursday in Microsoft’s annual digital threats report, show how foreign adversaries are adopting new and innovative tactics in their efforts to weaponize the internet as a tool for espionage and deception.

America’s adversaries, as well as criminal gangs and hacking companies, have exploited AI’s potential, using it to automate and improve cyberattacks, to spread inflammatory disinformation and to penetrate sensitive systems. AI can translate poorly worded phishing emails into fluent English, for example, as well as generate digital clones of senior government officials.

Trump's Next Potential Deal: Ukraine.

The week began with a diplomatic breakthrough and a (fragile) cease-fire in a years-long war. It ends with another conflict stuck in a bloody, frustrating rut. Donald Trump has made it his mission to achieve peace in both. But the deal to halt the fighting in Gaza and return the last living Israeli hostages came about in part because Trump used his leverage to push both sides to make concessions. The president’s willingness to exert maximum pressure to achieve peace has not extended to Russia, making it possible for President Vladimir Putin to keep waging war.

Trump famously boasted that the Ukraine conflict would be easy to solve. It didn’t look that way today. He met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House and called for the war to end, but declined to authorize—at least for now—the transfer of Tomahawk missiles to Kyiv.

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With rare earths, deft diplomacy (and ample flattery), Pakistan shows how to deal with Trump 2.0

As US President Donald Trump took a victory lap in front of world leaders following the Gaza ceasefire on Monday, he gave a shout-out to Pakistan’s top soldier, calling him his “favorite field marshal.”

He then relinquished the podium to allow Pakistan’s civilian leader, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, to deliver to the cameras his own praise of Trump’s ceasefire efforts. Sharif announced that same day he intended to nominate Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize – again.

A year ago, such scenes would have been unthinkable.

China expels two top generals from Communist Party in anti-corruption crackdown

Two top Chinese military leaders have been expelled from the ruling Communist Party and the military on corruption charges, the country’s defense ministry said on Friday, the most senior officers to be purged in an anti-graft drive that began in 2023.

He Weidong, China’s number two general, and navy admiral Miao Hua, the Chinese military’s former top political officer, are the latest senior military officials to be targeted in a campaign against corruption in the People’s Liberation Army.

He’s removal is the first of a sitting general on the Central Military Commission since the 1966-1976 Cultural Revolution. He has not been seen in public since March, but the investigation of his activities had not previously been disclosed by Chinese authorities.

Trump’s approval rating on the economy takes hit because of shutdown, inflation, CNBC survey finds

Americans’ views on the economy turned more negative in the third quarter with deepening concerns about jobs, inflation and the outlook, according to the CNBC All-America Economic Survey. Together with blame for the shutdown aimed at the president and congressional Republicans, those views dragged down President Donald Trump’s net approval rating on the economy to 42% approving and 55% disapproving.

The -13 net approval on the economy is the lowest of any CNBC survey during either of Trump’s two terms. The president’s overall approval rating dropped to 44% from 46% while disapproval rose 1 percentage point to 52%. The results continued a second-term trend with his economic approval running below his overall approval rating. But the survey also shows increasingly negative attitudes about the president’s handling of critical economic issues. Just 34% of the public approve of his policies on inflation and the cost of living, with 62% disapproving. Those are the worst numbers of the three CNBC surveys during the president’s second term, an important finding for a president who promised to reduce prices.

Can anything knock China off its mountain?

A few years ago, it looked as if the US and China might battle over global hegemony and preeminence. But this looks less likely now, thanks to America’s own behavior.

Under Trump 2.0, the US has alienated many of the key allies it would have needed in order to match China’s market size and manufacturing acumen, leaving America standing alone against a country four times its size. Tariffs have hobbled America’s already tottering manufacturing sector. Just a few months after Trump’s inauguration, the idea of a democratic world led by the US standing up to challenge China’s rise now seems more than a little far-fetched. Meanwhile, China continues to bully and overpower Trump in trade negotiations.

This basically leaves China as the world’s preeminent power by default. The likeliest outcome is that this will be a “Chinese century” — though it won’t look quite like the “American century” did, because China will use its power and influence very differently than the US did.

Netherlands mocked as ‘pirate’ after taking over China’s Nexperia

Chinese state media and pundits have called the Dutch government a “pirate” and even threatened it with a ban on rare earths, following its seizure of control of the Chinese-owned semiconductor maker Nexperia in late September.

On September 29, the United States Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) issued an interim rule extending its Entity List and Military End-User List to cover affiliates of the sanctioned entities. Any company at least 50% owned by a listed entity now automatically inherits the same restrictions.

On September 30 this year, having failed to persuade the Chinese owners to yield control over key decisions or go public in Europe, the Dutch government acted. The Dutch Minister of Economic Affairs invoked the Goods Availability Act to take over Nexperia, citing its “serious governance shortcomings.”

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fredag 17. oktober 2025

What Happens When Trump Gets His Way With Science

As Andrea Baccarelli, the dean of Harvard’s School of Public Health, prepared to open a virtual town hall earlier this month, members of the university’s graduate-student union gathered for a watch party with “Baccarelli Bingo” cards. The game boards were filled with phrases the dean was expected to use: “these are difficult times”; “i know it’s not a satisfying answer but we don’t know”; “… which is why we must be innovative!” At the center of the grid was a free space, bedazzled with emojis, that read, “no meaningful commitments made.”

Baccarelli’s stated goal was to provide an update on the school’s financial crisis. Of Harvard’s schools, HSPH has been by far the most reliant on government grants—and so was the hardest hit by the Trump administration’s cuts to federal research funding. In the spring, essentially overnight, the school lost about $200 million in support. Although a federal judge has ruled that those grant terminations were illegal, the school’s future relationship with the federal government remains uncertain.

China, US clash in global shipping after chip and tariff wars

China has unveiled retaliatory measures against the United States’ newly imposed port fees, signaling rising tensions between the two sides ahead of their top leaders’ potential face-to-face meeting in Seoul later this month.

The Chinese Commerce Ministry said on Tuesday it started levying a special port-entry charge of 400 yuan ($56) per net ton on US-linked container ships. It stated that the opening rate will increase annually until it reaches 1,120 yuan by April 17, 2028.It also sanctioned five US-related subsidiaries of South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean, including Hanwha Shipping LLC, Hanwha Philly Shipyard Inc., Hanwha Ocean USA International LLC, Hanwha Shipping Holdings LLC, and HS USA Holdings Corp.

It accused the entities of assisting US Trade Representative investigations involving China’s maritime and shipbuilding sectors, thereby hurting China’s sovereignty and development interests. The sanctions prohibit Chinese organizations and individuals from conducting transactions or cooperating with the listed firms.

“We will fight if we must fight. Our doors are open if the US wants to talk,” an unnamed spokesperson of the Chinese Commerce Ministry said in a statement on Tuesday.

Trump claimed India had agreed to stop buying Russian oil. New Delhi says it knows nothing about it

ndia has seemingly pushed back against US President Donald Trump’s claim it had agreed to stop importing Russian oil, signaling the issue that has strained ties is unlikely to be resolved soon. Trump on Wednesday said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had “assured me today that they (India) will not be buying oil from Russia,” which is subject to US sanctions, describing it as a “big step.”

But on Thursday India’s foreign ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal told reporters he was “not aware of any conversation” between Trump and Modi, or any assurance from the Indian leader that he would stop purchasing Russian oil. Earlier in the day, India’s foreign ministry said the country was a “significant importer of oil and gas,” without naming Russia nor referencing Modi’s purported assurance.

Will Putin’s call lure Trump closer to the Kremlin?

Timing in diplomacy is everything, and the Kremlin seems to have timed its latest, lengthy phone call with the White House – the eighth in the past eight months – to perfection.

With US President Donald Trump poised to meet Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky in Washington, and publicly weighing the risks of supplying Kyiv with long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles, Russian officials described the call they initiated as “positive and productive,” and “held in an atmosphere of trust.”

In fact, it was a nearly two-and-a-half-hour intervention by President Vladimir Putin – a last-minute bid to halt in its tracks all that dangerous talk of potentially game-changing US weapons supplies to Ukraine.

China’s Rare Earth Restrictions Could Backfire on Xi. Here’s How

Beijing’s latest rare earth restrictions, intended to consolidate an already dominant position and boost its leverage amid ongoing trade negotiations, may be an ill-judged gambit that could see China cede control over what is shaping up to be the 21st century’s most critical supply chain.

Under the new rules—unveiled by China’s Ministry of Commerce last week and set to take effect in December—foreign firms will be required to secure government approval before exporting magnets and certain semiconductor materials that contain even trace elements of Chinese-source rare earths.

“China’s move fits squarely within the broader U.S.–China strategic rivalry, where both powers are waging political and economic warfare beneath the threshold of open conflict,” said Ryan Kiggins, political science professor at the University of Central Oklahoma and nonresident fellow at the Armed Services Institute. “Rare earths sit at the heart of this contest: they underpin advanced weapons systems, EVs, and the energy transition—sectors that define 21st-century power.”

India Responds to Trump’s Claim About Russian Oil Pledge

New Delhi has responded to President Donald Trump’s claim on Wednesday that his Indian counterpart pledged to begin phasing out Russian oil imports, amid the administration’s efforts to pressure Russia to end its war in Ukraine.

"India is a significant importer of oil and gas," Indian Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Shri Randhir Jaiswal said in a statement Thursday. "It has been our consistent priority to safeguard the interests of the Indian consumer in a volatile energy scenario. Our import policies are guided entirely by this objective."

The ambiguity of Thursday's statement has reportedly led some Indian oil importers to consider a pause, with critics also questioning why Modi would allow Trump to make the announcement on his behalf.

Remembering Jerome A. Cohen: A ChinaFile Conversation

Jerome Alan Cohen (July 1, 1930 – September 22, 2025) was a renowned American lawyer who was one of the foremost foreign scholars of Chinese law. After studying law at Yale, Cohen embarked on a career in constitutional law, clerking for Supreme Justices Earl Warren and Felix Frankfurter before beginning to teach law at the University of California, Berkeley. But at the age of 30 he pivoted, beginning to study Chinese language and the People’s Republic of China’s legal system. After the resumption of diplomatic relations between China and the U.S. he became the first American lawyer to practice in China.

I wouldn’t get to know him until many years later, by which point he was not only the reigning authority on the subject but the beloved mentor and champion of generations of Chinese lawyers, scholars, and activists.

India's exports to US plunge as Trump's 50% tariffs bite

India's goods exports to the US, its largest foreign market, dropped sharply by 20% in September and nearly 40% in the last four months, as Trump's steep tariffs took effect, data shows. September was the first full month of Washington's 50% tariffs on Indian goods, which kicked in on 27 August. This includes a 25% penalty for Delhi's refusal to stop buying oil from Russia.

"US has become India's most severely affected market since the tariff escalation began," said Ajay Srivastava of Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), a Delhi-based think tank.

Negotiations for a trade deal between the two countries are under way, with the goal of concluding an agreement by next month. According to GTRI, the most significant impact of the tariffs has been felt by labour-heavy sectors such as textiles, gems and jewellery, engineering goods, and chemicals, which have suffered the heaviest losses.

China arrested 30 Christians. Some fear it's the start of a bigger crackdown

Last Friday Grace Jin Drexel received a text from her father in China, the prominent pastor Jin Mingri, telling her to pray for another pastor who had gone missing. The text said that the other pastor had been detained while visiting the southern city of Shenzhen.

"Shortly after that, I got a call from my mum. She said she couldn't contact my dad," Ms Jin Drexel, who lives in the US, told the BBC.

Within hours her family realised that Mr Jin had also been caught up in what has been described by activists as China's largest arrest of Christians in decades. Some now fear that last weekend's roundup of 30 Christians linked to the Zion Church network, which Mr Jin founded, marks the start of what could be a wider crackdown on underground churches.

They point to new laws passed in China which appear aimed at curbing underground church activity, and increasing pressure exerted by authorities on church members in recent months.

India Overtakes China in World Air Force Ranking

In a stunning shift in global military power, India has leapfrogged China to claim the title of the third most powerful air force in the world. While the United States continues to dominate, followed by Russia, India’s rise signals a dramatic recalibration in Asia’s strategic balance.

China, long considered a major air power, now ranks fourth. The latest World Directory of Modern Military Aircraft (WDMMA) rankings cover 103 countries and 129 air services—including army, navy, and marine aviation branches—and track a total of 48,082 aircraft worldwide.

Air power remains a decisive factor in global military strategy. The United States continues to lead, with its air capabilities surpassing the combined fleets of Russia, China, India, South Korea, and Japan. This dominance is supported by nearly 40 percent of global military expenditure concentrated in the United States.

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