Kinaforum

tirsdag 24. mars 2026

US intel doubts China will invade Taiwan in 2027

China may be preparing to take Taiwan, but not through a near-term invasion, as new US intelligence suggests it is prioritizing coercion, pressure and political absorption over outright war.

The March report, entitled 2026 Annual Threat Assessment of US Intelligence Community, says China has no fixed timetable for forcible unification and instead prefers to achieve it without force, even as the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) continues to build capabilities for a cross-strait campaign.It assesses that Chinese officials view an amphibious assault as highly risky and complex, particularly given the likelihood of US intervention. China’s approach is shaped by PLA readiness, Taiwan’s domestic politics and uncertainty over US response, with conflict carrying major global economic consequences.

While China maintains its goal of unification by 2049, it appears focused on gradually shifting the strategic balance while retaining military options as a deterrent. These constraints point to the political, military and economic risks that underpin China’s reluctance to pursue a near-term invasion of Taiwan.

‘Chinese characteristics’ and Xi Jinping’s latest purge of brass

Most Western analyses of the recent purge of two People’s Liberation Army four-star generals treat this development as something shocking. Chinese Communist Party Chairman Xi Jinping has been accused of paranoia, and the power of the Chinese Communist Party Central Military Commission (CCP CMC) is supposed to be crumbling.

Western voices tend to focus on the role of ideology within the PLA, and are quick to detect signs of internal fragmentation, but the downfall of these officers needs to be examined from the perspective of “Chinese characteristics.”

General Zhang Youxia, first vice chairman of the CCP CMC, and General Liu Zhenli, chief of staff of the Joint Staff Department of the CMC, were arrested in late January, and accused of “grave violations of discipline and law,” i.e. corruption. Both were prominent representatives of the PLA in the National People’s Congress, and Zhang Youxia had been close to Xi Jinping since their childhood as “princelings”.

Iran’s Hormuz pain is China’s yuan gain

Say what you want about the Iranian regime, it’s a master troller in ways for which US President Donald Trump surely didn’t foresee.

Nowhere is that more apparent — or potentially impactful — than Iran’s reported plan to showcase the yuan by requiring all oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz to settle transactions in the Chinese currency. It’s enough to ruin Trump’s week — and that’s saying a lot considering the many ways the US-Israeli attack on Iran has gone sideways.Another example: Iran calling Trump’s bluff in supposed ceasefire talks. On Monday, Trump delighted markets by stating he’s postponing his 48-hour ultimatum on attacking Iran’s energy infrastructure amid “productive” negotiations to end the hostilities. Tehran’s response, essentially, was: “Uhhh, what talks?”

But the yuan wrinkle could put Trump World in quite a bind. Assuming Iran would even consider allowing US-bound tankers through the Strait, requiring payment in yuan would be a significant diplomatic concession. Among the reasons Trump was reelected was a pledge to take China down a peg, hence his tariff-fueled trade war.

Energy fallout from Iran war signals a global wake-up call for renewable energy

The war in Iran is exposing the world’s reliance on fragile fossil fuel routes, lending urgency to calls for hastening the shift to renewable energy. Fighting has all but halted oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that carries about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas, or LNG. The disruption has jolted energy markets, pushing up prices and straining import-dependent economies.

Asia, where most of the oil was headed, has been hit hardest, but the disruptions also are a strain for Europe, where policymakers are looking for ways to cut energy demand, and for Africa, which is bracing for rising fuel costs and inflation.

Unlike during previous oil shocks, renewable power is now competitive with fossil fuels in many places. More than 90% of new renewable power projects worldwide in 2024 were cheaper than fossil-fuel alternatives, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency.

Africa’s solar boom faces higher costs as China cuts export subsidies

China’s decision to end value-added tax rebates on solar panel exports and phase out incentives for making battery storage equipment could push up the cost of solar installations in Africa, which relies heavily on imported Chinese technology.

The changes, expected to take effect April 1 for solar panels and beginning next year for batteries, may complicate efforts to expand renewable energy to close vast electricity gaps across Africa, though experts say the impact likely will be manageable.

“We are likely to see solar panel prices increase in Africa because most of the inputs come from China,” said Wangari Muchiri, an energy analyst focused on Africa’s clean energy sector. “Removing the rebate will add to existing costs, especially when you consider shipping, logistics, and other import fees.”

China protests to Japan over alleged break-in at its embassy in Tokyo

China says it has protested to Japan over an alleged break-in at the Chinese Embassy in Tokyo.

An individual who claimed to be a Japan Self-Defense Forces officer scaled the wall and forced his way into the embassy compound on Tuesday morning, Lin Jian, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, said in a news conference in Beijing.

Tensions between the two Asian nations have escalated in recent months after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said in November a Chinese miltray action against Taiwan could constitute “a survival-threatening situation” for Japan requiring the use of force. Beijing, which regards the self-governing island as part of its territory, has since stepped up diplomatic and trade reprisals against Japan.

Torbjørn Færøvik: Isfahan - A City Loved, A City in Danger

Travelers of the past struggled to find the right words to describe the Iranian city of Isfahan. Yet one of them, the Frenchman Jean Chardin, wrote in the seventeenth century: “The city shone like a pearl in the desert and dazzled us completely with its splendor.” Another, Pietro della Valle, added: “The beauty of the city surpasses everything I have seen in the East.”

But this spring it is threatened with mutilation and death. In recent weeks, its inhabitants have lived in constant fear of the thunder in the sky.

“Our city is like a museum without a roof. Spare us!” pleads the mayor.

Isfahan is not only a historical jewel, but also an industrial and technological hub in Iran. In and around the city are several facilities linked to Iran’s nuclear program, military industry, air bases, and logistics. This makes it a potential target for airstrikes, increasing the risk of damage to both civilian and historic areas.

Japan Is back – but not the version Washington wants

When Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi planned her visit to the Oval Office, she was hoping to showcase something familiar: Japan’s renewed commitment to defense spending, alliance coordination, and economic investment in the United States. Instead, on Thursday, she had to walk into a different conversation shaped by a widening war in the Middle East.

Following US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, Tehran has moved to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical energy chokepoint, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies pass. The crisis has sent oil prices surging and markets reeling. For Japan, which relies on the Persian Gulf for some 90% of its crude imports, the implications are immediate and severe.

Even a ‘superpower’ is nowhere near as powerful as it looks

Yet again, the US-Israel war against Iran is showing that even a so-called superpower is nowhere near as powerful as it looks. Although we will all suffer the political and economic effects of this war for many months and years to come, we humbler powers in Europe should find this renewed proof quite reassuring. With the important exception of nuclear weapons, the gap between what a superpower can achieve and what humbler, so-called “middle powers” can do is a lot smaller than it seems.

It is tempting to attribute this to the strategic incompetence that has been demonstrated by the Trump administration. Despite having had many months to plan and prepare for this war, Donald Trump and his team have been taken by surprise by the ability of the Iranian regime not just to survive but also to hit back against American military assets and Arab allies and to restrict the flow of oil out of the famously narrow Strait of Hormuz.

‘Better Than Gold’: China’s Traders Cash in as Memory Chip Prices Soar

AI demand is tightening memory supply and driving sharp price swings, creating windfalls for traders while forcing China’s tech firms into an increasingly volatile market. Standing beside an open car trunk on a side street in southern China’s tech hub of Shenzhen, Roy Luo runs a quick, practiced eye over the labels on a stack of NAND flash memory chips, the kind vital for phones, computers, and servers.

He has only minutes to decide. Prices can shift without warning, and high-value stock may vanish to another buyer. Luo, a 30-year-old electronics trader, checks his phone, nods once, and wires payment to the seller.

In Huaqiangbei, the world’s largest electronics market, this is how some of the most lucrative deals have been made since last September, as a global shortage of memory chips fuels more speculation.

Iran says it will allow Japanese ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz

Iran says Japanese ships will be allowed to transit the Strait of Hormuz, in the latest sign that Tehran has started pursuing a selective blockade of the strategic waterway.

“We have not closed the strait. In our opinion, the strait is open. It is closed only to ships belonging to our enemies, countries that attack us. For other countries, ships can pass through the strait ,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Japan’s Kyodo News late on Friday.

“We are talking to them to find a way to pass safely. We are ready to provide them with safe passage. All they need to do is contact us to discuss how this route will be,” Araghchi said, according to an English transcript of the interview shared on his Telegram account.

Japan sources more than 90 percent of its crude oil imports from the Middle East and is heavily dependent on exports transiting the strait, but the waterway has been de facto closed since the United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28.

China’s Record-Breaking Underwater Tunnel Reaches Major Milestone

The upper deck of the Yellow River tunnel in Jinan, the capital of the province of Shandong in East China, was completed on Tuesday, marking a major breakthrough for the world's largest-diameter underwater shield tunnel, according to Xinhua, the Chinese state news agency.

The upper deck of the tunnel, which is located on Huanggang Road, was finished with the pouring of the final cast-in-place roadway slab, reported the Global Times, the state-owned Chinese newspaper.

The tunnel is China's first single-bore, double-deck shield tunnel to pass beneath the Yellow River, an engineer involved in the project told the Global Times. Spanning 5.75 kilometers (around 3.6 miles), the tunnel accommodates six lanes across two levels, with a speed limit of 60 kilometers per hour (around 37 miles per hour).

About 3.3 kilometers (around 2 miles) of the tunnel were constructed using the shield tunneling method, deploying a 17.5-meter diameter (around 57 feet) tunnel-boring machine (TBM), according to Xinhua.

U.S. executives, from Apple to Eli Lilly, revamp their push into the world’s second-largest economy at the China Development Forum

As corporate giants navigate U.S.-China tensions, more than 80 global executives, from Apple to Eli Lilly,traveled to Beijing this weekend for the annual state-organized China Development Forum.

The executives’ remarks reflected renewed interest in capturing the Chinese consumer, after years of uncertainty from the Covid-19 pandemic, slower growth and U.S. trade tensions. Fresh off a recovery in Apple iPhone sales in China, the company’s CEO Tim Cook took the stage after Chinese Premier Li Qiang on Sunday, praising the “extraordinary” pace of technological progress in the country, such as factory automation.

He said: “We are proud to be part of that progress, and we’re committed to working alongside our supplier partners to push it even further.” He added that more than 90% of Apple’s production in China is powered by clean energy.

China-North Korea transit relaunch points to better ties

Passenger rail services between Pyongyang and Beijing resumed on March 13 for the first time in more than six years, as North Korea and China seek to expand trade and diplomatic coordination.

North Korea sealed its borders at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic in January 2020, and while freight trains between North Korea and China resumed in September 2022, passenger rail and air links remained dormant. According to China Tourism Group, the Pyongyang–Beijing service now runs four times a week. A separate line between Pyongyang and the Chinese border city of Dandong operates daily.

Air links are also set to expand. Chinese flag carrier Air China is scheduled to resume a weekly flight between Beijing Capital International Airport and Pyongyang's Sunan International Airport from March 30, according to the airline's booking system.

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Hong Kong: New rule forces people to surrender passwords

The Hong Kong government on Monday announced that anyone refusing to give up phone or computer passwords in investigations related to national security could face up to a year in prison. The new rule is part of a raft of amendments to Hong Kong's national security law, which was imposed by China in 2020 following huge pro-democracy protests in the semi-autonomous city.

It requires people to provide "any password or other decryption method" necessary to allow police with warrants to access electronic equipment that is believed to hold evidence.

Those who fail to comply could face a fine of up to HK$100,000 ($12,700; €11,000) or a one-year prison sentence.The amendment applies to people who are under investigation for endangering national security, as well as anyone who owns, controls, or is authorized to access the equipment in question. It also covers anyone who knows the password or decryption method.

Torbjørn Færøvik: Krigen truer Irans kulturskatter

Fortidens reisende slet med å finne de riktige ordene når de skulle beskrive den iranske byen Esfahan. Men en av dem, franskmannen Jean Chardin, skrev på 1600-tallet: «Byen skinte som en perle i ørkenen og blendet oss helt med sin prakt». En annen, Pietro della Valle, tilføyde: «Byens skjønnhet overgår alt jeg har sett i Østen.»

Men denne våren trues den av lemlestelse og død. De siste ukene har innbyggerne levd i konstant frykt for larmen på himmelen.

«Byen vår er som et museum uten tak. Spar oss!» trygler byens borgermester.

Esfahan er ikke bare en historisk perle, men også et industrielt og teknologisk knutepunkt i Iran. I og rundt byen finnes flereanlegg knyttet til Irans atomprogram, militær industri, flybaser og logistikk. Det gjør den til et potensielt mål for luftangrep,noe som øker risikoen for skade også på sivile og historiske områder.

China weathering Iran war with minimal damage

Various observers are emphasizing that the US-Israeli war against Iran is either hurting or helping China.

Some argue that “China has a lot to lose,” that the war is “unsettling China and its ambitions,” or that “Xi Jinping’s geopolitical chessboard is starting to collapse.” Others contend that the war “could help China,” that “China gains [an] edge from Trump’s war,” or that “Beijing may emerge as the quiet winner.”This is a complicated question involving several factors, some favorable to China’s global agenda and some unfavorable. A proper assessment finds that the war is a net negative for China, but not by much.

For China, Iran was a useful but never a vital economic partner. In 2021, China signed a deal to eventually invest US$400 billion in Iran in exchange for a steady flow of oil. China’s investment up to the start of the war was only a small fraction of that figure. As University of Pennsylvania analyst Aaron Glasserman summarizes, “Iran needs China, but China does not need Iran.”

Japan's prime minister emerges buoyed from Trump summit

The delicate summit between US President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichiwent off largely smoothly on Thursday. Takaichi arrived in Washington bearing trade and energy deals, and Trump reciprocated by reiterating the importance of the relationship while refraining from asking Tokyo to send warships to the Strait of Hormuz to support the US-Israel war with Iran.

The meeting was arranged long before the US and Israel launched their attacks on Iran late last month, with Trump last week calling on US allies, specifically naming Japan, to commit military forces to the region.

Japan would be unable to make any such commitment under the terms of its strict pacifist constitution. The Iran war in general is deeply unpopular with the Japanese people, analysts point out, effectively making it impossible for Takaichi to accede to any such request.