Vietnam too slow, too timid to defuse its demographic time bomb

Vietnam is one of the most rapidly graying countries in the world, aging at a stage of development that leaves it far less room to adapt than many of its regional peers.

Vietnam’s total fertility rate (TFR) fell from 2.11 children per woman in 2021 to 1.91 in 2024, the third consecutive year below the replacement level of 2.1. Significantly, the decline is sharpest where economic activity is highest. Ho Chi Minh City recorded a rate of between 1.32 and 1.39 in 2024, depending on the source.

The United Nations Population Fund projects that by 2036, Vietnam will have transitioned from an “aging” to an “aged” society, a shift that took roughly 25 years, comparable to Japan and far faster than the 115 years France required.

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