More than 500 Rohingya vanished at sea - what happened?

Two boats carrying an estimated 530 Rohingya asylum seekers left Myanmar's Rakhine state on 29 June, and have not been heard from since. The equivalent of a jumbo jet full of people has vanished. It is very likely that they both capsized. The monsoon has started, the seas are rough, and the boats - usually old fishing trawlers converted to carry as many people as possible - are barely sea-worthy with unreliable engines.

It is also very likely that there were few, or no survivors. Half of them may have been women and children.

But we will never know for certain. Rakhine has been in a state of war for many years, with the insurgent Arakan Army driving the Myanmar military out of most of it and besieging its last stronghold in the state capital Sittwe, which is now accessible only by air and sea. Almost all telecommunications have been cut by the military.

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