This is how things will go down. U.S. President Donald Trump will arrive in Beijing next Thursday to be serenaded with gushing pageantry. There’s the obligatory photo op at the Great Hall of the People before closed-door talks with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. Both leaders will emerge to a fanfare of superficial deals that each can claim as a win: the sale of American soybeans and perhaps jet engines that China desperately needs. They release statements pledging cooperation. Wheels up.
Of course, with Trump’s fragile cease-fire with Iran already cracking in the Strait of Hormuz, significant uncertainty clouds whether his China trip will happen at all. U.S. commanders-in-chief don’t typically gladhand their chief adversary while ensnared in a costly and floundering war. Trump is, however, no slave to convention, especially considering the ugly optics of postponing the trip a second time. What is much more certain is that nothing substantive will materialize from the summit.
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