Tomorrow Donald Trump lands in Beijing. Since he does not read books and lacks knowledge about many things, he may know precious little about what happened in 1972, when Richard Nixon broke the ice and opened a new chapter in relations between the United States and China.
It was almost unbelievable. On a chilly February day 54 years ago, a smiling Nixon walked into Mao’s study and said: “Mr. Chairman! History has brought us together. The question is whether we, with our different ways of thinking, can achieve a breakthrough that will serve not only our two countries, but the whole world.”
“Seize the hour, and seize the day!” Mao muttered. He was ill and weakened, and could barely speak.
The United States and China had long been bitter enemies and had no diplomatic relations. But now there they sat, Mao and Nixon, each in an armchair, smiling at one another. The meeting lasted just under an hour. Days later, they agreed on a joint communiqué that created the framework for their future relationship. The visit did not end in full normalization, but it was nevertheless a strategic breakthrough for both countries.
Nixon’s act of statesmanship was that he saw China as a piece in the global balance of power. By reaching out to Mao, he weakened the Soviet Union’s position while giving the United States greater diplomatic room for maneuver. It was classic realpolitik. Nixon came to Beijing as a principled anti-communist. Precisely for that reason, he could extend his hand to Mao without being accused of being naïve or appeasing.
Two years later, Nixon was engulfed by the Watergate scandal, while Mao’s health steadily deteriorated — and in 1976 he passed away. As a result, much was put on hold. Not until 1979 did the Democrat Jimmy Carter complete what Nixon had begun. At last, the United States recognized the People’s Republic of China. At the same time, formal ties with Taiwan were severed. Shortly afterwards, Congress passed a new law, the Taiwan Relations Act, which meant that the United States could still assist the island in various ways, including with limited arms sales.
The next man in the White House, the Republican Ronald Reagan, was initially strongly pro-Taiwan. For years he had referred to the People’s Republic of China as “Red China.” But as president he became more pragmatic. He realized that the United States and China had a common strategic interest in keeping the Soviet Union in check. Besides, the Chinese were no longer as revolutionary as they once had been.
Reagan’s visit to China in 1984 therefore became symbolically important. Suddenly the old anti-communist was standing on the Great Wall of China, surrounded by photographers on all sides. Also accompanying him was a large group of American business leaders, eager to test the waters in the promised land.
In 1989 Reagan was succeeded by his party colleague George H.W. Bush. Bush had served as his country’s envoy in Beijing in the mid-1970s and knew several of the Chinese leaders. The starting point was therefore better than ever. But then came the demonstrations in Tiananmen Square, which were eventually crushed with brutal force. Bush responded by suspending all high-level contacts, while at the same time trying to maintain a back channel to the Chinese leadership. That made him controversial. Even so, he helped prevent the relationship from collapsing altogether.
The Democrat Bill Clinton began from the opposite end. During the 1992 election campaign, he criticized Bush for being too accommodating toward the “butchers of Beijing.” As president, he first tried to entice the regime with trade benefits if it took human rights more seriously, but it was not long before he gave up. Instead, he allowed himself to be persuaded to let China into the World Trade Organization. The idea was that the country would become “like everyone else” if only it became part of the global economy.
China joined the WTO in December 2001, after Clinton had left office, but the groundwork was laid under him. American companies suddenly gained access to an enormous market, and many believed that economic opening would lead to political liberalization. Clinton himself said that, in the long run, the agreement would lead to the democratization of China’s political system.
Since then, the debate has gone back and forth. Critics of the agreement argue that Clinton and the American establishment underestimated China’s state capitalism and its ability to use globalization without giving much in return. Many American industrial workers lost out, while China became an economic superpower at record speed. In 2001, the country’s GDP was only 13 percent of America’s; today it is 66 percent, measured in nominal terms. Adjusted for price and wage levels in both countries, China has already overtaken the United States. Its exports over the same period have increased from 266 billion dollars to almost 3,800 billion dollars.
Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama did little to confront China over its treaty obligations. Both were mostly concerned with “engaging” the country in the hope that the leadership in Beijing would eventually yield. When that did not happen, Donald Trump was given a golden opportunity to go for China’s throat and embrace American workers.
This was part of the backdrop to his election victory in November 2016. “I’ll fix this,” he said, inviting China’s president and party leader Xi Jinping to his Florida estate in April 2017. On the surface, their first meeting seemed successful, but it soon became clear that China had little to offer. An agreement to settle a budding trade war was indeed signed in January 2020, but then came the pandemic, and most things ground to a halt.
Now ten years have passed, and Trump is still at a loss as to how to deal with the giant in the East. One day he may condemn China’s trade practices; the next he may lavish praise on Xi Jinping and say that he admires him more than anyone else. Such things do not go down well in China, least of all with Xi, who has probably seen through Trump as false, insecure and not particularly trustworthy.
Unfortunately for the United States, it is a greatly weakened Trump who is travelling to Beijing. Repeated opinion polls show that he is on the decline. His war against Iran was meant to demonstrate America’s omnipotence, but instead it has laid bare the country’s impotence. Globally, the United States has fewer friends than ever, and even its allies feel uncertain about what tomorrow will bring. Xi Jinping therefore has little to fear from the man who still insists that he is a genius.
