tirsdag 7. april 2026

How Iran wins the war on its own terms

Iran has experienced meaningful attrition in a war it entered already weakened by international sanctions and a five-year drought.

These operating constraints nevertheless leave Iran with a rare window of opportunity to realize a postwar reality that leaves it in a relatively better position and its opponent in a relatively worse one compared to the antebellum. In a complex modern conflict, this must count as victory.Iran must do three things well to achieve this “victory”: isolate the US from its allies, deprive the American casus belli of legitimacy, and set into motion a postwar consensus that imposes a cost on the US.