tirsdag 21. april 2026

Gulf poised to move closer to China after the war

The Iran war has delivered a profound and systemic shock to the Gulf, fundamentally challenging two assumptions that have underpinned regional stability for the better part of a century.

For decades, the Gulf’s economic model thrived on a perception of stability, reinforced by push factors like tax exemptions, flexible regulatory regimes and a dynamic, diversified start-up ecosystem. Simultaneously, the region’s security architecture rested on a traditional oil-for-security arrangement, maintained by a dense network of American military bases and hardware.

Yet, both pillars have been materially weakened by nearly two months of war, during which missile and drone strikes have targeted all Gulf states. This reality has ushered in a painful phase of strategic reassessment of Washington’s reliability as a security guarantor, forcing regional capitals to look toward the East with newfound urgency.