The March report, entitled 2026 Annual Threat Assessment of US Intelligence Community, says China has no fixed timetable for forcible unification and instead prefers to achieve it without force, even as the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) continues to build capabilities for a cross-strait campaign.It assesses that Chinese officials view an amphibious assault as highly risky and complex, particularly given the likelihood of US intervention. China’s approach is shaped by PLA readiness, Taiwan’s domestic politics and uncertainty over US response, with conflict carrying major global economic consequences.
While China maintains its goal of unification by 2049, it appears focused on gradually shifting the strategic balance while retaining military options as a deterrent. These constraints point to the political, military and economic risks that underpin China’s reluctance to pursue a near-term invasion of Taiwan.