It’s too soon to tell, as the fight with Iran started less than a week ago. But at least in the near-term, China will likely hold its fire on Taiwan. However, if the Iran conflict continues for an extended period, lasting months rather than weeks, while casualties mount and the US appears bogged down, Chinese President Xi Jinping might be tempted to finally make good on his
threat to move against Taiwan, a “reunification” he recently characterized as “unstoppable.”
China might assess that its military overmatch around Taiwan is such that the US can’t amass enough force to forestall or respond to a Chinese assault without suffering heavy losses.
And if the Americans don’t take the lead, no other regional nation will, not even nearby Japan. Despite impressive niche capabilities, the Japan Self Defense Force can’t fight a major war on its own.
