The Complicated Stakes of the AI Race Between the U.S. and China

Trade tensions between the United States and China have eased for now, but the technology race is accelerating. While Washington and Beijing have relaxed export controls on semiconductors and rare earths, both have announced new AI models, new applications, and new deals.

This week, world leaders are meeting in New Delhi for the India AI Impact Summit. And technology competition is, unsurprisingly, high on the list of discussion topics. Ever since last year’s “DeepSeek moment,” policymakers and executives have continued to debate: Will the U.S. or China win the AI race?

But that question may simplify more than it clarifies. What does AI leadership mean? What are we racing toward? What are the tradeoffs? Where are global supply chains too connected to derisk? And where can countries other than the U.S. and China compete? Without understanding the nuance of these questions, leaders risk advancing short-sighted solutions to today’s most pressing technology problems and may be pursuing flawed strategies in the long game of geopolitics.

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