søndag 22. februar 2026

Global trade trapped between US tantrums and China’s bravado

If you are an Asian exporter, port operator or supply-chain manager, “trade geopolitics” is not an abstract debate. It is the volatility premium paid in freight, contracts, inventory and investment decisions.

Trump’s latest move—lifting a new global tariff rate to 15% after the Supreme Court struck down his earlier duties imposed under emergency powers—highlights a governing style that treats tariffs as a multipurpose instrument: revenue, industrial policy and bargaining chip.That single sequence—court loss, rapid legal pivot, new rate—captures what many businesses and governments are learning the hard way: the United States and China are now selling the world two very different “instruction manuals” for economic statecraft.

One is loud, fast and legally improvised. The other is calm, strategic and carefully marketed.

Washington’s message, especially in the Trump era, is blunt: unpredictability is leverage. Beijing’s message is equally deliberate: China is the anchor of stability—even as its export machine keeps generating surpluses that make partners uneasy.