A leaked US Department of Defense (DoD) assessment known as the “Overmatch” brief warns that the US would likely lose a high-end war with China over Taiwan under current conditions.
The classified, multiyear report, obtained by the New York Times (NYT), was prepared by the DoD’s Office of Net Assessment and delivered to senior White House officials over several years. It maps how a conflict would unfold and concludes that China now possesses the means to destroy US aircraft, large naval vessels and satellites early in a fight, while exploiting critical US supply-chain vulnerabilities.
The brief details how China’s growing missile forces, low-cost drones and cyber capabilities could overwhelm US reliance on expensive, vulnerable platforms such as aircraft carriers and advanced fighter jets, leaving US forces unable to sustain a prolonged war.
According to officials cited by the New York Times, DoD war games consistently show US defeat, with one former senior national security official describing the assessment as revealing Chinese “redundancy after redundancy” against US advantages.
