Trump’s advisers are eager to claim victory. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant declared that the mere threat of 100% tariffs “brought China back to the negotiating table.” It’s classic Trumpian strategy: escalate, intimidate, then negotiate. The logic is familiar — you shake the tree until the apples fall.
But history reminds us that coercion has a shelf life. America’s reliance on Chinese rare earth minerals — the stuff that powers everything from fighter jets to smartphones — is not a secret. Roughly 70% of the global supply chain runs through China.
That gives Beijing enormous leverage, especially since 78% of the US military-industrial complex depends on those imports. When Trump threatened to double tariffs, Beijing countered by threatening export restrictions. In that high-stakes standoff, both sides blinked.
