Rethinking the Threat: Why China is Unlikely to Invade Taiwan

This report draws on extensive research, including fieldwork in Taiwan, to assess the likelihood of a Chinese invasion. Contrary to dominant defense narratives in Washington, the analysis shows such a scenario would be among the most complex and dangerous military operations in history. From risk of nuclear escalation to prospects of political upheaval and economic catastrophe, the barriers to invasion are immense. U.S. defense policymakers should reconsider this assumption on which to establish future military plans and explore more probable conflict scenarios.

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