The Population Puzzle Alarming the World’s Top Economies

The world’s top 10 economies are confronting a demographic dilemma: fertility rates have slipped below the replacement threshold of 2.1 children per woman, raising the prospect of shrinking workforces, aging populations, and growing economic strain. Data from the United Nations Population Division shows that countries as different as China, Germany, Japan, the United States and India are converging toward the same line: below replacement, with no sign of reversal.

The question now is how governments can soften the economic shock as shrinking workforces are left to support ever-larger retiree populations, straining pensions, healthcare systems and social safety nets.

Experts point to a mix of economic, cultural, and policy factors. In high and middle-income countries, women are delaying marriage and childbirth while balancing careers. Rising housing costs, childcare expenses, and uncertainty about jobs and health care weigh heavily on young families. In the United States, fertility dropped to a record 1.59 in 2024, an all-time lowamid the rising cost of living and as a growing share of women delayed childbearing.

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