mandag 8. september 2025

‘Skull Chart’ math behind Trump’s climbdown on all things China

The newest National Defense Strategy just delivered to Secretary of War Pete Hegseth calls for refocusing the Department of War on domestic and regional missions instead of global adversaries like China and Russia. The document – supposedly the work of Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby – overturns decades of received interventionist wisdom.

This may surprise many given our boy Colby had been a principal advocate for a robust and muscular “Strategy of Denial” to counter China. But perhaps our Under Secretary of War for Policy actually is a realist and not, against all prior evidence, a low-watt Washington nepo baby (see here).

In his confirmation hearings, young Colby did display surprising flashes of realism declaring, “Taiwan is very important to the United States, but… it’s not an existential interest.”