China’s Birth Crisis Is a Crisis of Faith in the Future

On September 8, 2025, China began accepting applications for its nationwide childcare subsidy, retroactive to January 1, a flagship policy in its bid to reverse a record-low birth rate. Earlier, in August, the State Council announced that the government will pay for children’s last year of preschool. In recent years, the government has offered tax breaks, housing incentives, and fertility treatment coverage to encourage family formation.

But these measures are unlikely to work. China’s birth rate has fallen from 2.5 births per woman in 1990 to just 1 birth per woman in 2023. The country’s declining birth rate is not only an economic problem but a cultural one. For many young people, the real barrier is not the cost of raising children. Rather, it is the conviction that parenthood no longer makes sense in a future that feels uncertain and unworthy of investment. Unless policies address this deeper malaise, subsidies and bonuses will do little to stem the decline.

This mismatch matters. A shrinking population threatens China’s domestic growth, the resilience of global supply chains, and even geopolitical stability. Fertility decisions are, at their core, decisions about the future. When a generation turns away from parenthood, it signals not just hesitation but a broader withdrawal from hope itself.

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