torsdag 14. august 2025

Why Trump bows to Xi but batters and mauls Modi

US President Donald Trump’s 90-day extension of a tariff truce with China while tightening the screws on India is rooted in the cold arithmetic of open macroeconomics – where the balance of real economic power, supply chain leverage and strategic resources determines who can endure a trade war and who must yield.

In 2024, the United States ran a US$295.5 billion goods trade deficit with China, a function of China’s dominance in manufacturing and its role as the world’s low-cost supplier of electronics, machinery and intermediate goods.  Roughly 30% of US imports originated in China, embedding a structural dependency that tariffs alone could not unravel without provoking inflation and supply chain chaos at home.