October 10 is shaping up to be a day of bitter disappointment for Donald Trump. On that date, the chair of the Nobel Committee will announce this year’s Peace Prize laureate — and it will not be Trump. The Oval Office is bracing for a volcanic reaction, and Washington’s crisis managers would do well to prepare.
“We have a great relationship with Norway. Great leader, great people,” Trump gushed in April when Jonas Gahr Støre and Jens Stoltenberg came calling. “Just keep doing what you’re doing … I love Norway. It’s beautiful.”
The sugary praise was no accident. Trump was currying favor with the Nobel Committee. Yet not long after, Norwegian exports to the U.S. were slapped with a 15 percent tariff.
Trump’s obsession with the Peace Prize goes back years, but it intensified with the start of his second term in January. In his inaugural address, he promised he would be remembered for the wars he ended — and the wars he stayed out of. Almost immediately, he launched an undisguised campaign for the Nobel.
As expected, his methods have been a mix of farce and tragedy. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other close aides were ordered to press his case. Foreign leaders were recruited, too. Some eagerly obliged, including Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu, who dramatically read out a nomination letter for Trump on live American television.
Trump also found endorsements from Cambodia’s new strongman Hun Manet — notorious for crushing dissent — as well as from leaders in Pakistan, Azerbaijan, and Armenia. Not exactly moral giants. Yet Trump, living in his own bubble, seemed convinced the Nobel Committee would be impressed.
At one point, he even phoned NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg for a chat about the upcoming award. Stoltenberg happened to be strolling through sunny Oslo when the self-styled emperor of the world called. What was said, we may learn someday.
Trump’s fixation is also about revenge. Barack Obama — his predecessor and archrival — won the Nobel in 2009. Ever since, Trump has railed that Obama was an unworthy recipient. As he grumbled in 2019: “They gave it to Obama right after he became president, and he didn’t even know why. I’ve done much more than Obama ever did.”
During last year’s campaign, Trump promised that conflicts big and small would vanish “like magic” if he returned to the White House. In Ukraine, he vowed to bring peace within 24 hours. Recently he bragged that he had “ended wars” in six countries — then, on Fox News the next day, raised the number to seven.
Fact-checkers shook their heads. While Trump has influenced the course of some conflicts, he has not ended a single one. His most tangible diplomatic achievement — the Abraham Accords of 2020 — normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states, but mainly out of shared hostility to Iran. They did nothing to resolve the core conflict with the Palestinians. Quite the opposite.
Since the Gaza war erupted in October 2023, the U.S. has poured $18 billion in military aid into Israel, with billions more in future arms sales approved. Stealth fighters, F-15s and F-16s, precision-guided bombs, Hellfire missiles, tanks, cluster munitions — the list goes on. Military experts agree Israel could not have waged such a destructive war without continuous American backing. So far, 62,000 Palestinians have been killed in retaliation for the deaths of 1,175 Israelis and others on October 7. Nearly half the Palestinian dead are women and children.
In Ukraine, more than three years after Russia’s full-scale invasion, Trump bears heavy responsibility for weakening Kyiv’s hand. Early in his second term, he flatly declared that Ukraine could never join NATO, and insisted it must give up Crimea and other territory for peace. “You don’t have any cards,” he shouted at Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a humiliating White House meeting that stunned television viewers worldwide.
Peace requires patience, trust, and cooperation. Trump lacks all three. Instead, he boasts of imaginary triumphs, lays claim to Canada and Greenland, dissolves USAID, and pulls the U.S. out of UNESCO, the World Health Organization, the UN Human Rights Council, and the Paris climate accord. More withdrawals may yet come.
At home, too, he stokes division. ICE agents hunt undocumented immigrants with brutal zeal. The National Guard is mobilized to “cleanse” American cities of supposed criminals. Chaos, spectacle, and fear — his signature brand of governance.
The Nobel Peace Prize is more than a gold medal. It is a global symbol. For Trump, winning it would be proof that he is not just a president, but a world-historic figure. His Oval Office, already dripping in gold and glitter, surely has space for one more trophy.
But he will never get it.
And that, thankfully, is Norway’s gift to the world.
