Taiwan’s future precarious—with or without US-China conflict

Taiwan has often compared itself to being a “shrimp between two whales.” That expression has never been more apt than today with the US and China – which considers Taiwan to be part of its territory – locked in a standoff over the future of the island.

At an event I attended some years ago, a Chinese scholar remarked when the issue of the US-China rivalry came up that they believed there was an African saying: “When two elephants are either having a fight, or making love, the grass around them gets trampled.”

It was best for everyone, they advised the other attendees, for the two superpowers to have a workmanlike, unexciting relationship rather than take the risk of things getting too friendly or hostile.But whether or not the current period of conflict continues or the US and China magically become more aligned, the challenges facing Taiwan are severe.

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