US pressure and the possible “snapback” of UN sanctions could choke off Iran’s clandestine crude exports, testing Beijing’s energy security, raising costs for its industry and dealing a financial blow to Tehran in a high-stakes geopolitical showdown. Iran’s oil exports have rebounded sharply in recent years despite US sanctions over its nuclear program. After plunging to a 40-year low of about 0.4 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2020, exports recovered to roughly 1.4 mbpd in 2023 and peaked near 1.5 mbpd in 2024.
However, this has since seen a reduction in 2025 following regional crises, with sales decreasing again. Despite this volatility, China’s dominance as a buyer remains absolute, purchasing roughly 90% of Iran’s total exports.
