In the face of such pronouncements, it would be tempting to see that date as a near certainty. But there are many reasons why it may not come to pass, including the worrying reality that China could achieve its designs on Taiwan without firing a shot.
Invasion is a simple word but it refers to complex things. China could try to launch an amphibious invasion, with one of the vast new ships with specialist landing barges spotted in Guangdong earlier this year. But the move would be foolhardy for a largely untested navy. A more likely scenario is a blockade.
