Given China’s dominant position in trade with the U.S., that decline will be larger than the total decline in global exports to the U.S. when all nations are factored into the model.
The forecast is based on the latest tariffs implemented between the U.S. and China, and how global trade may be reconfigured in response. Currently, the U.S. is charging a combined 51% in tariffs on Chinese goods, while U.S. exports to China face 32.6% tariffs. The U.S. has threatened far higher tariffs on Chinese goodsif no deal is reached by August 12, which could take tariff rates to as high as 145%.
