The Communist Party’s Politburo has been meeting in Beijing in recent days. The Politburo consists of 24 stern men, all of whom have pledged loyalty to party leader Xi Jinping and his ideology. The meeting was, of course, led by Xi, who has ruled the country since 2012.
The party newspapers claim that the strong growth in membership is “irrefutable proof” of the Communist Party’s “correct policies.” But quantity does not necessarily guarantee quality, and the fight against corruption—both inside and outside the party—remains a top priority. Last year was an especially busy one for the Central Committee’s disciplinary commission. Both small and big fish were caught in the net—even several of Xi’s close associates.
The Chinese Communist Party was founded in Shanghai in 1921. Only thirteen sworn men participated in the secret meeting. From Hunan Province came a young man with a round face, high forehead, and black, flowing hair. He was 27 years old and named Mao Zedong. There is little indication that he played any important role at the meeting, but he would more than make up for that later.
Chen Duxiu was elected the party’s first leader. He was a university professor and fourteen years older than Mao.
“Oh, young men of China!” he had written in an article in 1915. “Can you understand me? Five out of ten that I meet are young in age but old in spirit… When this afflicts a body, it dies. When this afflicts a society, the society also dies.”
On his first day on the job, Chen noted that the party had only 57 members. In the following years, it grew steadily, but it wasn’t until Japan’s invasion in 1937 that it gained real momentum. When World War II ended eight years later, the party had around a million members. By 1949, when Mao finally seized power, that number had quadrupled.
Mao was quick to ban all opposition. The Communist Party thus became the sole ruling force, and party membership became both a declaration of political loyalty and a path to a public service career. When the combative chairman passed away in 1976, the party’s membership was estimated at 35 million.
The growth in membership in recent decades can partly be explained by the sharp increase in population—from 930 million in 1976 to 1.43 billion in 2024. It also stems from the party opening its doors to new professional groups. In the early 2000s, private entrepreneurs were officially allowed to become members. Jiang Zemin, who was party leader at the time, argued that China was changing and that the country’s new class of private capitalists also deserved a voice.
And so it happened. Both small and large capitalists were welcomed in. “Better to have them inside than outside” was the refrain. The idea was probably sound, but with greater diversity in the ranks, it became harder to keep corruption in check. The perceived moral decay was part of the backdrop for Xi Jinping’s rise to power in 2012. Xi demanded more discipline in the ranks and immediately launched a nationwide campaign against corruption, waste, and immorality.
Nevertheless, the party continued to grow, and now the 100-million mark has been passed. The fresh overview from the Politburo doesn’t say how many of the members are “capitalists,” but according to Chinese media, 30–35 percent of the country’s private businesspeople are party members. This is—presumably—a guarantee that China will continue to practice a mixed economy. According to several estimates, about 60 percent of the country’s value creation comes from private companies.
Among the biggest capitalists in the party is Jack Ma, known as the founder of the Alibaba Group and worth 114 billion U.S. dollars. In addition, there is a slew of other billionaires who have made fortunes from everything from bottled water to high technology. Several of them are also members of the country’s national legislature, the National People’s Congress. Many of the party’s career politicians have also managed to amass great wealth through shady transactions. Some have been exposed and are behind bars—others not.
Even though the party’s membership has passed 100 million—and the party newspapers are celebrating—it may be difficult to maintain discipline in the long run. Xi Jinping and his colleagues face constant choices that put unity to the test. A large number of Chinese businesspeople, for example, have a clear interest in ending the trade war with the U.S. and resuming exports abroad. But Xi has many considerations to weigh and must look both left and right. The last thing he wants is to appear weak in a standoff with Donald Trump.
There is little doubt that the trade war has set back the Chinese economy. Travelers who have visited the country recently report export companies operating at low capacity, millions of unsold housing units, and rising unemployment. Xi Jinping’s response has been to encourage the Chinese people to “eat bitterness” and endure whatever hardships may come.
To “eat bitterness” for a limited time may be possible—but not indefinitely. The world’s largest Communist Party must therefore unite around a strategy to get out of the quagmire. Last week’s Politburo meeting offered no answers, instead concluding with calls to strengthen coordination among the party’s top organs and to stand together in challenging times.
In the past month, rumors have swirled both inside and outside China that Xi may be in trouble. The rumors gained traction because he did not appear in public for a two-week period at the turn of May–June. When he finally resurfaced to receive Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko, he appeared like a defeated man, according to Gregory W. Slayton, a former U.S. diplomat writing in the New York Post. The meeting, moreover, was not held in the Great Hall of the People as usual, but in the leadership’s closed residential compound in Beijing.
My conclusion:
Despite its freer economy, large population, and many party members, China remains something of an enigma—rather closed off, secretive, and hard to understand.
