mandag 19. mai 2025

Why China Will Not Invade Taiwan (For Now)

A new narrative is gaining ground, stating that China is likely to invade Taiwan in the near future. The reasoning is straightforward: The Trump administration’s tariff war, and the potential decoupling of the Chinese and U.S. economies, is removing the main reason China has long had for holding back in the first place. Without access to the lucrative U.S. market, China has little left to lose, and will thus finally unleash its imperial ambitions on its smaller neighbor.

This view is mistaken. Despite what some U.S. politicians seem to think, the United States is not the beginning and end of China’s foreign economic relations. In fact, China’s largest trading partner today is the European Union. The U.S. is close behind, but then again so is the combined weight of Japan and South Korea.