søndag 18. mai 2025

China threatens Scott Bessent’s economic rebalancing act

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent once described tariffs as the “gun […] on the table”. The gun may have gone off a tad early, but ultimately the image is correct. Yet it’s not about the gun so much as it’s about the table. Something of a White House strategy appears to be crystallising, in which goods tariffs will still play a role. Europeans could end up with a 10% tariff for most goods, and more for steel, cars and pharmaceuticals. But the heavy lifting in what Bessent this week called “big, beautiful” rebalancing will have to come from elsewhere.

Ending global imbalances would mean China, the EU and the US all altering their behaviour. China will have to consume more, the EU will have to end its beggar-thy-neighbour strategy, and the US will have to save more. America has the hardest task here, and it is difficult to see how it will cut its budget deficit.