Consumer spending has expanded well below its pre-pandemic pace. October’s retail spending figures were a welcome uptick as the latest round of stimulus measures (in part the cash-for-clunkers program for household appliances) helped lift spending, but November saw a give-back of some of the gains. Ample capacity remains, and with home prices continuing to correct (albeit at a slower pace2), consumer confidence is likely to be locked in the doldrums, resulting in a protracted recovery.
fredag 10. januar 2025
TD Economics: How Far Will They Go? China’s Outlook for 2025
We expect China’s growth to clock in at 4.8% in 2024, in line with the 5%-ish target set out by policymakers. Next year, authorities are likely to set a growth target of around 5%, along with an expansion in the fiscal deficit1. However, risks are tilted to the downside and our forecast is for a 4.7% expansion, a virtual repeat of this year’s performance, as the trade war with the U.S. gains steam. There is ample uncertainty around this forecast as the scale and scope of tariffs, along with the size of the policy response from China’s authorities, remains unknown.
Consumer spending has expanded well below its pre-pandemic pace. October’s retail spending figures were a welcome uptick as the latest round of stimulus measures (in part the cash-for-clunkers program for household appliances) helped lift spending, but November saw a give-back of some of the gains. Ample capacity remains, and with home prices continuing to correct (albeit at a slower pace2), consumer confidence is likely to be locked in the doldrums, resulting in a protracted recovery.
Consumer spending has expanded well below its pre-pandemic pace. October’s retail spending figures were a welcome uptick as the latest round of stimulus measures (in part the cash-for-clunkers program for household appliances) helped lift spending, but November saw a give-back of some of the gains. Ample capacity remains, and with home prices continuing to correct (albeit at a slower pace2), consumer confidence is likely to be locked in the doldrums, resulting in a protracted recovery.
