Minxin Pei: Do Chinese Leaders and Elites Think Their Best Days Are Behind Them?

China’s economy has likely peaked or is peaking, yet there is little sign the country’s leaders agree. Its GDP relative to the United States (US), in dollar terms, was lower in 2023 than in 2021, for example. An analysis of elite statements and speeches indicates they vehemently deny signs that China’s economy needs reform. Without initiating difficult reforms, however, the favorable factors party leaders cite, such as extensive resources and economies of scale, may not keep China growing at the necessary pace to outcompete the US.

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