Global Risk Series: Sino-Japanese Tensions Will Escalate in the East China Sea

In early March 2024, the Japanese Air Self-Defense Force scrambled fighter jets in response to suspected airspace intrusions in the East China Sea. This is part of a decades-long dispute between China and Japan regarding competing claims over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. While, at present, neither side seeks an extreme escalation of tensions, conflict is increasingly likely within the next decade.
Analysis

The Senkaku Islands (referred to as Diaoyu Islands in China) are a potential flashpoint for conflict in the next decade. Currently, Japan administers the islands, while China claims sovereignty over them. Both sides endow the islands with national significance, have increased their military presence in the region, and rely on inadequate mechanisms to avoid costly escalation. When conflict erupts, it will have far-reaching implications for the geopolitical landscape of East Asia and beyond.

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