torsdag 4. juli 2024

China’s demographics aren’t a short-term problem

In discussions about China’s economy, the issue of demographics comes up quite a lot. In 2022, China’s population began to decrease (and coincidentally, India’s population surpassed China’s). The country’s fertility rate, which had already fallen below replacement levels decades earlier, fell again recently, to just 1.09 — one of the lowest rates in the world, and even lower than Japan.

This is prompting a lot of hand-wringing about the future of China’s economy, both from people within China and from foreign observers. For example, here’s a quote in the WSJ: