fredag 24. mai 2024

The Ambitious Dragon: Beijing’s Calculus for Invading Taiwan by 2030

On 23 October 2022, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) announced that Chinese President Xi Jinping would serve an unprecedented third term leading the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). It is noteworthy that during his speech to the 20th National Congress of the CCP, President Xi repeatedly reinforced the narrative that “complete reunification of our country must be realized, and it can, without a doubt, be realized.” He followed this bellicose statement by asserting that the PRC “reserves the option to take all measures necessary.”

The international community must not only assess if President Xi will honor his commitment to his people of annexing Taiwan, but when the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will act on Beijing’s hegemonic ambitions to invade Taiwan—if peaceful unification is not possible on President Xi’s terms. The thesis of this article is that President Xi has a strategic window, in the 2030 timeframe, when favorable conditions exist to forcefully annex Taiwan if peaceful unification is not achieved before then. This hypothesis is based upon the fact that an emboldened China intends to fulfill its strategic intent and imperial objectives through expansionist behavior against Taiwan.