China’s Third Plenum Is Long Overdue. That’s a Red Flag.

For observers of Chinese politics, the most significant development in the second half of 2023 was not what occurred, but rather what failed to happen: The 20th Central Committee’s Third Plenum, which typically takes place in late October or early November the year after the National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), was notably absent.

The CCP is a party of rhythm, adhering to routines and cycles in its organizational processes. It usually follows a five-year cycle for National Party Congresses. Since the Cultural Revolution, the CCP has hosted Party Congresses in years ending with 7 and 2.

These congresses represent the most prominent gatherings for the CCP, where representatives of all party members convene in Beijing. The general secretary – currently Xi Jinping – initiates the proceedings with a Party Work Report, summarizing the achievements of the past five years. Subsequently, party representatives participate in the election of the new Central Committee and Central Committee of Discipline Inspection, even though the list is likely predetermined. Following this, party representatives vote on amendments to the Party Constitution.

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