tirsdag 3. januar 2023

China 2023 Outlook: After Winter Comes Spring

After a very challenging 2022, we expect China GDP growth to accelerate from 3.0% this year to 4.5% next year on the back of China’s potential exit from its zero-Covid policy, which we assume will start shortly after the “Two Sessions” in March. China’s reopening would imply a strong consumption rebound, firming core inflation, and gradually normalizing cyclical policies in 2023, says Goldman Sachs. 

Beneath the full-year growth acceleration, the Chinese economy is likely to display a distinct “two halves” next year. Our growth forecast is notably below consensus in H1 but significantly above in H2. This is due to our belief that the initial stage of China’s reopening may be negative to growth, with Covid cases surging and population mobility temporarily declining, similar to the reopening experience of several other East Asian economies.