fredag 20. mai 2022

Beware the Himalayan Heat: China, India, and Pakistan on the Brink

This spring, as the snows melt in the high Himalayan borderlands between India, China, and Pakistan, the longstanding threat of crisis, or even war, looms. We, the co-chairs of a new study group report from the United States Institute of Peace, find that too few in U.S. national security and foreign policy making circles appreciate just how dangerous this region has become, how regional dynamics have changed over the past several years, and what more Washington should do in response.

This is the world’s only region where three nuclear-armed states share contested and frequently violent borders, and where two nuclear powers — India and Pakistan — have launched airstrikes on each other’s territories. All three powers are investing heavily in their armed forces, deepening their border defenses, and expanding their nuclear arsenals and delivery systems. Although we hope these investments will enhance deterrence and encourage restraint, we judge the opposite to be more likely.