Some analysts believe Beijing will conclude that only heavy saturation strikes and air supremacy against the island could provide the upper hand China would need for its forces to cross the strait to invade and occupy the densely populated Taiwanese cities. Others say Xi Jinping, requiring a political achievement to justify his third term as leader, may turn to capturing one of Taiwan's outlying islands instead, as Vladimir Putin did with Crimea or the Donbas, with little pushback from the West.
"The Russia-Ukraine war has informed all countries, including our own, and our enemy is no exception," said Chiu Kuo-cheng, Taiwan's defense minister. "We must continue to monitor [the situation] closely. We have a very good opportunity to learn, and we will use it."