onsdag 12. januar 2022

Kerry Brown: Uncertainty Ahead For Xi’s China

In 2021 China was, and in 2022 again will be, dominated by the domestic economy, relations with the United States, the COVID-19 pandemic and President Xi Jinping. Despite spectacular bounce-back growth in the first half of the year, China’s economy had slowed dramatically by year’s end. Worries centred on the property market, a perennial concern for over a decade due to fears of overheating.

While disaster has so far been averted, in 2022 all eyes will be both on how the government handles this looming crisis and how it continues to treat the private sector, a significant source of employment. It will also be important to see how Beijing implements its ‘dual circulation’ strategy which is meant to strengthen the role of Chinese consumers and make them more important as sources of growth. The test will be to see whether this reenergises growth. Harsh lockdowns are also unlikely to aid growth in the year ahead.