tirsdag 28. september 2021

China’s Housing Bubble Puts All Other Housing Bubbles to Shame

When playing word association with China’s economy right now, some phrases spring to mind that may seem unfair: pyramid scheme, house of cards, Jenga tower with half the pieces missing, intoxicated teenager on stilts. But two terms that do not come to mind, and absolutely should not, are “stable” and “sustainable.”

If you’re a New Zealander or Canadian or American, you might think your housing market is wild. And it is. But for sheer deadly froth, nothing matches China. Not only have prices been soaring, but real estate makes up nearly 30% of GDP, compared with 19% for the U.S. in its housing bubble, writes Noah Smith. Worse, housing makes up 78% of Chinese assets, compared with 35% for the U.S., writes Niall Ferguson. Popping this bubble would hammer China’s economy in a way that could make the Great Recession look like a spoiled gender-reveal party.