mandag 5. august 2019

Beijing may be ruthless, but it’s not stupid

These days, right-wing American ideologues like to claim that Beijing is preparing Tiananmen 2.0 for Hong Kong. Here are a few fine specimens, respectively from the New York Post and Wall Street Journal: “Beijing is prepping for a massacre in Hong Kong”; “The Coming Hong Kong Crackdown: The protests are the most stunning rebuke to Beijing since Tiananmen Square. They may end the same way.”

Under the guise of concern for our welfare and freedom, they are baying for a bloody crackdown. Why? Because that would provide the pretext for hawks in Washington to expand their fight against China on multiple fronts including, possibly, the use of military force. I argued yesterday that there was a low probability of PLA deployment in Hong Kong. But even if it happens, it won’t be a repeat of June 4. The PLA today is nothing like it was in 1989.