tirsdag 12. februar 2019

China's GDP Estimates Challenge Policy Makers

The most serious problem for China's slowing economy may be that the government doesn't know how serious it is. For years, some economists have taken China's official economic data with a large dose of salt, citing government efforts to project stable growth through good times and bad, as well as numerous attempts to stamp out statistical fraud.

In the dark days of 2015, for example, China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported relatively sunny 6.9-percent growth of gross domestic product, despite evidence to the contrary. Surrogate indicators like rail freight volume fell 11.9 percent, quickening from a 3.9-percent drop a year earlier. Some economists estimated that actual GDP growth slipped as low as three percent to four percent.