Recent data show a “significant and increasing downturn” in China’s economy, with annual GDP growth for last year dropping to a near 30-year low of 6.6 per cent, said Brock Silvers, managing director of Kaiyuan Capital, a Shanghai investment advisory firm. «Beijing has taken stimulus measures, but most analysts still expect China’s economy to continue slowing in the near term,” Silvers said. “Xi’s call for risk awareness reflects Beijing’s reasonable political preparations for expected economic volatility.”
Louis Kuijs, the Hong Kong-based head of Asia research for Oxford Economics, said one key grey rhino event would be the “virtual disappearance” of China’s current account surplus. “China ran a large current account surplus for a long time, but it has been shrinking substantially in recent years. With import tariffs coming down and the impact of US tariffs starting to kick in, the external surplus is likely to come down more,” Kuijs said.
Louis Kuijs, the Hong Kong-based head of Asia research for Oxford Economics, said one key grey rhino event would be the “virtual disappearance” of China’s current account surplus. “China ran a large current account surplus for a long time, but it has been shrinking substantially in recent years. With import tariffs coming down and the impact of US tariffs starting to kick in, the external surplus is likely to come down more,” Kuijs said.
