søndag 15. oktober 2017

China’s 19th Party Congress: Projecting the Next Politburo Standing Committee

Analyzing the past 20 years of Chinese politics, we can identify eight precedents that seemed to have played a central role in the process of forming the Politburo Standing Committee, the apex of power in the Chinese Communist Party.

Based on these eight precedents, the Politburo Standing Committee after the 19th Congress should have seven seats. Two will be filled by Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang. Another will be filled by Han Zheng. Two more seats will go to Chen Min’er and Hu Chunhua. The most probable outcome, as already discussed, is that Chen Min’er will become vice president and first-ranked secretary of the party’s central secretariat, while Hu Chunhua will become vice premier.